香港银行：2026年资本回报率或维持10%-17%，预计降息

Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts that the capital return rate of listed banks in Hong Kong will remain at a high level of 10% to 17% by 2026, supported by strong tangible net asset return rates and a dividend and buyback return rate of approximately 7% [1] Group 1 - In the past year, Hong Kong bank stocks have performed well, primarily due to an unexpected increase in tangible net asset return rates [1] - CICC anticipates that the market will enter a rate-cutting cycle this year, with the Federal Reserve's December dot plot indicating potential rate cuts of 1 to 2 times in 2026 and 0 to 1 time in 2027, leading to a rate drop to 3% [1] - Despite expectations of a narrowing net interest margin for Hong Kong banks due to the anticipated rate cuts, the decline in net interest income is expected to remain in the low single digits, supported by slight asset growth [1]