2026年AI狂欢下的隐忧：通胀“回马枪”或将刺破美股泡沫

Group 1: Market Overview - The global stock market is experiencing a surge driven by artificial intelligence (AI) enthusiasm, but inflation risks may threaten this growth [1] - Major tech companies contributed to half of the gains in the US stock market last year, with significant increases in stock indices due to AI and monetary easing expectations [1] - Wall Street anticipates that government stimulus and AI prosperity will inject new growth into the global economy in 2026 [1] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Fund managers are preparing for a potential resurgence of inflation, as economic growth from AI may lead central banks to end the interest rate cut cycle [1][2] - Tightening monetary policy could reduce investor interest in speculative tech stocks, increase financing costs for AI projects, and cut into tech companies' profits and stock prices [2] - Analysts predict that inflation rates will remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target due to substantial corporate investments in AI [2] Group 3: Cost Pressures - Rising costs associated with chip and energy consumption are expected to contribute to inflation, as major tech firms invest heavily in new data centers [2][6] - Oracle's stock dropped due to rising expenditure, while Broadcom warned of profit margin pressures, indicating early signs of market tension regarding cost increases [4] - HP anticipates experiencing price and profit pressures in the latter half of 2026 due to increased demand for storage chips driven by data center needs [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment firms are increasingly concerned about inflation risks, prompting some to shift towards inflation-protected bonds [5] - The potential for rising interest rates may lead to a decrease in the price-to-earnings ratios for large AI stocks [5] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that capital expenditures for AI data centers could reach $4 trillion by 2030, raising concerns about supply bottlenecks and spiraling investment costs [6]