Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-05 08:04Market Overview - As of January 2, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warehouse stocks at 97,925 tons, with cancellations of 8,400 tons, resulting in a net decrease of 750 tons. Total zinc inventory stands at 106,325 tons, down by 1,300 tons [1] - The Shanghai zinc futures inventory recorded 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Production Forecast - Refined zinc production is projected to be 552,100 tons in December 2025, which is below expectations. However, production is expected to increase to 569,400 tons in January 2026 [3] Institutional Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the overall market sentiment is warming. The treatment charges (TC) have stabilized due to the opening of the import window, but are expected to decline in January. The domestic raw material supply remains tight in the short term, while the supply side is expected to loosen in the long term. High zinc prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and domestic inventory reduction due to exports and production cuts is providing support for Shanghai zinc prices. The outlook suggests that while low domestic inventory supports prices, there is a lack of upward driving force in the fundamentals, leading to a range-bound market [4] - Guangzhou Futures anticipates that the medium to long-term focus for zinc prices will gradually shift upward. However, due to the traditional off-season in the first quarter, short-term upward potential is limited. Prices are expected to trend upward after the holiday, followed by a transition into a range-bound market [5]