桂冠电力(600236)：大唐集团旗下水电平台 业绩弹性与分红提升可期

Core Viewpoint - The company, a hydropower platform under China Datang Group, demonstrates strong profitability and dividend advantages, primarily focusing on hydropower resources in Guangxi region [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is controlled by China Datang Group and is positioned as a hydropower resource integration platform in Guangxi, with a total installed capacity of 13.9013 million kilowatts as of the end of 2024 [1] - The core hydropower assets consist of six cascade power stations in the Hongshui River basin, accounting for 83% of the total hydropower capacity [1] - Hydropower is the main source of revenue and profit, contributing over 70% to revenue and over 85% to gross profit in normal years [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's return on equity (ROE) from 2020 to 2024 ranges from 6.59% to 17.98%, generally above the industry average [1] - The average dividend payout ratio from 2020 to 2024 is high at 81%, indicating strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholder returns [1] Group 3: Hydropower Market Dynamics - In 2025, the company expects an increase in electricity generation due to the first full reservoir since the establishment of Longtan, with positive outlooks for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [2] - The electricity price has been steadily increasing since the cancellation of the water power benefit policy in Guangxi in 2021, reflecting a low marketization level [2] - The company benefits from a significant reduction in financing costs, with the comprehensive financing cost dropping from 4.28% in 2020 to 2.28% in 2024 [2] Group 4: Dividend Potential - The company is projected to have theoretical dividend payout ratios of 67%, 74%, and 86% for 2025-2027, based on capital expenditure and debt repayment assumptions [3] - Historical performance shows that even in adverse conditions, such as low water levels in 2023, the company increased its dividend payout ratio to 129%, maintaining a stable dividend per share [3] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.93 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.37 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.5%, 5.7%, and 8.5% respectively [4] - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios are projected to be 18.19x and 2.73x, respectively, which are higher than comparable companies, indicating potential for valuation improvement [4] - The estimated fair value per share ranges from 7.45 to 10.76 yuan, with a central value of 8.87 yuan, leading to a "recommended" rating for investment [4]