2026年，AI投资要靠超预期了

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector, particularly the AI computing power segment, is expected to remain a key investment theme in 2026, driven by strong growth and certainty in AI infrastructure development [2][5][40]. AI Computing Power - The AI computing power index has seen a significant increase of 46.67% since 2025, outperforming other AI-related indices [3]. - The growth in AI computing power is attributed to capital investments from major tech companies and government policies promoting domestic GPU alternatives [2][4]. - Despite the promising outlook for AI computing power, companies in AI applications and end products are not showing the same level of investment certainty [2][5]. Market Size and Growth Rates - The global GPU market is projected to grow from ¥10,515.37 million in 2024 to ¥36,119.74 million by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.99% [6]. - The Chinese intelligent computing GPU market is expected to grow from ¥1,425.37 million to ¥13,367.92 million, with a CAGR of 56.47% [6]. - Liquid cooling technology is anticipated to see a penetration rate increase from 14% in 2024 to 31% by 2026 [15]. GPU Market Dynamics - Nvidia holds a significant market share in the GPU sector, while domestic manufacturers are rising due to policies favoring local production [7][8]. - Companies like Cambricon are expected to achieve profitability by late 2024, driven by increased capital expenditures from internet companies [10]. - The projected net profit for Cambricon in 2026 and 2027 is expected to be ¥48.72 billion and ¥79.91 billion, respectively, indicating substantial growth [10]. Liquid Cooling - Liquid cooling is identified as a high-growth segment with increasing adoption due to its superior cooling efficiency compared to traditional air cooling [14]. - Major clients like Nvidia and Google are expected to drive demand for liquid cooling solutions, creating opportunities for domestic suppliers [17][20]. - Companies entering the Google supply chain are likely to see valuation increases, with examples like Invec and other domestic suppliers gaining traction [21][22]. Optical Modules and Chips - The optical module market is experiencing significant growth, with companies like NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang seeing stock price increases of 450% and 422% since 2025 [26]. - The investment logic for optical modules is driven by technological upgrades and increased capital expenditures from cloud service providers [25]. - The optical chip market is dominated by foreign companies, but domestic firms could see valuation increases if they achieve breakthroughs in high-end optical chips [30][31]. PCB Market - The PCB market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for high-layer and high-density boards in AI servers [32]. - The average price of AI server PCBs is projected to be three times higher than traditional servers, indicating a strong growth potential [33]. - Companies in the PCB sector are currently facing high valuations, necessitating substantial earnings growth to justify these levels [36]. Investment Ranking - The investment ranking for AI segments is as follows: Liquid Cooling (highest certainty), Optical Chips (top tier), GPU, PCB, Optical Modules (high certainty but high valuations), and AI applications (lower certainty) [39]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to provide liquidity support, enhancing the attractiveness of AI computing power investments in 2026 [40].