从0到1迈入黄金发展期：中国商业火箭产业链全景拆解

Core Insights - China's commercial space industry is at a critical turning point similar to SpaceX in 2015, with the recent test flights of Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A marking the transition of reusable rocket technology from experimental to engineering implementation [1][2] - The opening of the fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has cleared obstacles for IPOs of rocket companies, indicating a significant market opportunity driven by the rigid demand for satellite internet and the cost revolution brought by reusable technology [1][10][13] Market Opportunity - The satellite internet construction is expected to create a trillion-dollar market, driven by the rapid deployment of satellite constellations such as GW and G60, which plan to deploy up to 44,816 satellites [1][7][9] - The annual replacement demand for nearly 9,000 satellites will create a substantial capacity gap, further fueling the demand for commercial launches [1][7] Technological Development - Reusable rocket technology is identified as the key to breaking the cost bottleneck in space transportation, with China currently in a phase similar to SpaceX's early technical ramp-up [2][18] - The recent test flights of Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A, despite not achieving complete recovery, signify the start of a concentrated exploration period for reusable rockets in China [2] Cost Advantages - The cost advantages of high-frequency reuse are significant, as demonstrated by SpaceX's Falcon 9, which has achieved a marginal reuse cost of $15 million per launch, compared to the average cost of $110 million to $180 million for expendable rockets [5] - If China's commercial rockets can achieve similar breakthroughs, launch costs could be drastically reduced, supporting the large-scale deployment of satellite internet [5] Investment Focus - Analysts suggest that investment should focus on the most valuable segments of the supply chain, particularly engine manufacturing and rocket structure, which will benefit first from high consumption before reusable technology matures [1][18] - The core components of a typical liquid rocket, such as engines and structures, account for a significant portion of hardware costs, with the first-stage engine and structure comprising 77.8% of the total [14][18] Policy and Capital Market - The improvement of policy frameworks and the opening of capital market exit channels are accelerating the transition of commercial space from a storytelling phase to a performance-driven phase [10][17] - The new IPO guidelines for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board directly pave the way for leading commercial rocket companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and Interstellar Glory [10][13]