Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-05 09:28Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile is leveraging a "dual-fuel" strategy to mitigate the impact of declining new energy subsidies and is accelerating its overseas expansion, targeting an export volume of 1 million units by 2027 [1][2]. Sales Performance - In December, Geely's total sales reached 236,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales at 154,300 units, up 38.7% [1]. - For 2025, Geely's total sales are projected to be 3,024,600 units, reflecting a 39.0% year-on-year growth, achieving its annual sales target [1]. - The company aims for sales of 3,450,000 units in 2026, representing a 14.1% increase, supported by a sustainable subsidy policy and an expanding product matrix [1]. Dual-Fuel Strategy and International Expansion - Geely's brand sales in December reached 172,800 units, a 10.2% increase, with NEV sales at 1,687,800 units for 2025, marking a 90.0% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company plans to sell 2,220,000 NEVs in 2026, a 31.5% increase, to counteract the effects of subsidy reductions [2]. - Geely's exports in December totaled 40,300 units, a 49.0% increase, with total annual exports at 420,100 units, up 1.3% [2]. - The company is expanding into 13 new markets, including the UK, Italy, and Brazil, with significant progress in its factories in Egypt and Indonesia [2]. High-End Brand Development - In December, sales for the Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands were 30,300 and 33,800 units, respectively, showing increases of 11.3% and 29.4% [3]. - The Zeekr 9 model has become the best-selling large SUV priced above 500,000 yuan, while the Lynk & Co 900 has sold over 50,000 units within six months of its launch [3]. - The company aims for Lynk & Co sales of 400,000 units in 2026, a 14.1% increase, and Zeekr sales of 300,000 units, a 33.8% increase [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 17.041 billion, 20.604 billion, and 24.318 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The target price is set at 20.79 yuan per share, equivalent to 23.02 HKD, maintaining a buy rating [4].