甲骨文如何扭转市场叙事？瑞银：OpenAI信仰修复、负债压力证明可控

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock price has experienced a significant decline of 41% since mid-September, reflecting market concerns about OpenAI's ability to fulfill its trillion-dollar promises and Oracle's substantial net debt of $88 billion [1][4] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Investors are anxious about OpenAI's ability to meet commitments, which has negatively impacted Oracle as a key supplier [4] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating, arguing that the market has overestimated the risks associated with OpenAI and Oracle's financing pressures [1][4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for Oracle based on 2026 earnings expectations is 29 times, and only 11 times for 2030, indicating an attractive risk-reward ratio [1] Group 2: OpenAI's Financial Situation - OpenAI is reportedly raising $100 billion at a valuation of $830 billion, with significant commitments from SoftBank and Amazon, which could alleviate concerns about Oracle's risk exposure [7] - The anticipated release of GPT-6 in Q1 is expected to enhance OpenAI's competitive position and restore investor confidence [7] Group 3: Oracle's Debt and Financing Strategies - Oracle's net debt stands at $883 billion, with a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.8 times, raising concerns about its balance sheet [6] - To manage capital expenditures and debt, Oracle is pursuing aggressive financing strategies, including off-balance sheet financing and a "Bring Your Own Chip" (BYOC) model [6][7] - UBS estimates that if 50% of Oracle's funding needs are met through these strategies, direct financing requirements could drop from $80 billion to $40 billion over the next three years [7] Group 4: Market Position and Growth Potential - Despite concerns about competition from Google's Gemini, UBS's enterprise AI survey indicates that OpenAI remains dominant in the enterprise market [5] - Oracle's revenue growth is projected to accelerate from 16% to 46% between FY26 and FY28, suggesting a robust growth narrative [9] - Even in a worst-case scenario where OpenAI's contributions to Oracle's revenue cease, the stock's price-to-earnings ratio would still be relatively low at 12.4 times [9]