高盛：今年中国内地、印度、中国台湾及澳纽地区经济增长前景更为乐观

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that major Asian economies are demonstrating resilience in 2025, successfully addressing challenges posed by U.S. tariff policies [1] Economic Environment - Declines in food and energy prices have boosted real income, while financial conditions are becoming more accommodative due to interest rate cuts in many countries [1] - Fiscal policies across the region are generally leaning towards expansion [1] Export Performance - East Asia's export performance is strong, particularly in semiconductor exports from Taiwan, with contributions from South Korea and excellent performance in nearly all other product categories from mainland China [1] Future Growth Outlook - In the context of an overall positive global economic growth outlook for 2026, East Asian exports are expected to continue thriving [1] - However, many regional economies will need to rely more on domestic growth drivers, which may increase pressure for policy stimulus and/or economic reforms [1] Regional Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs holds a more optimistic view on growth prospects for mainland China, India, Taiwan, and the Australia-New Zealand region compared to general market expectations [1] - The outlook for Japan is consistent with market views, while a more cautious stance is taken towards certain Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Indonesia [1] Inflation and Currency Trends - The firm maintains an overall optimistic view for global markets in 2026, expecting moderate inflation [1] - South Korea and Southeast Asian countries are anticipated to implement sporadic interest rate cuts towards the end of the economic cycle, with regional currencies expected to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, primarily supported by a gradual strengthening of the Chinese yuan [1]