Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities reports that Mixue Group (02097) is a leading player in the affordable beverage market, with strong sales momentum driven by high-quality, cost-effective products and brand marketing. The company is expected to see net profits of 5.85 billion, 6.52 billion, and 7.30 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 32%, 12%, and 12%, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 21, and 19. The rating is maintained as "Buy" [1]. Group 1: Business Model and Market Position - Mixue Group is a global leader in the fresh beverage industry, offering products priced around 6 yuan (1 USD) including fruit drinks, tea, ice cream, and coffee. The company operates over 46,000 stores as of the end of 2024, with the highest beverage output in China and the second highest globally. Revenue primarily comes from the sale of materials and equipment to its stores through its own supply chain [1]. - The company has built a unique competitive moat in the affordable tea beverage market through over a decade of experience in supply chain management, store franchise management, and product development. The brand's positioning as "high-quality and affordable" resonates with consumers, and its Snow King IP has successfully established emotional connections with customers [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Growth Potential - The affordable tea beverage segment is expected to continue growing rapidly due to its low price point appealing to mass consumer upgrades, with significant penetration potential in lower-tier markets. The pricing of affordable tea beverages is comparable to packaged drinks, making them essential consumer products with stable growth prospects. The current oversupply of stores in the industry is likely to lead to a trend of eliminating weaker brands, favoring those with strong product and channel capabilities, such as Mixue [3]. - The demand for freshly brewed coffee is on the rise, with "Lucky Coffee" targeting lower-tier markets and becoming the "first cup" of coffee for young consumers in small towns. The brand's marketing, location selection, and supply chain advantages position it well in the market, with a potential for 20,000 stores in the medium term [4].
东吴证券:维持蜜雪集团“买入”评级 平价赛道前景清晰