今年首个交易日延续升势：人民币对美元即期汇率升破6.98

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD), reaching a new high since mid-May 2023, with the closing exchange rate at 6.9806 on January 5, 2026, marking an increase of 84 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - On January 5, the CNY/USD exchange rate peaked at 6.9770, the highest since May 2023, and closed at 6.9806, up 84 basis points from the previous day [1]. - The central parity rate for CNY against USD was reported at 7.0230, an increase of 58 basis points [2]. Economic Context - The USD index strengthened for the second consecutive trading day, reaching a high of 98.7984 on January 5, amid rising geopolitical risks [3]. - The chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, Wen Bin, anticipates that the CNY will maintain a stable two-way fluctuation pattern in January, despite the USD's recent stabilization [3]. - The US economy shows resilience, with a third-quarter GDP growth rate of 4.3%, up from 3.8% in the second quarter, indicating potential for a gradual increase in non-farm employment [3]. Future Outlook - Seasonal demand for currency settlement in January may support further appreciation of the CNY, although the central parity rate is diverging towards depreciation compared to the closing spot rate, suggesting some cyclical behavior in the forex market [4]. - Overall, while the CNY may exhibit a strong performance in January, it is expected to fluctuate within the 6.9-7 range, reflecting the regulatory stance to maintain stability in the exchange rate [4].