“铝”创新高！凌厉涨势的背后推手是什么？

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a significant price surge, driven by favorable domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, despite some short-term demand weakness and supply constraints [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Macro Factors - Recent domestic policies, including the 2026 national subsidy plan and the promotion of high-quality electricity grid development, are expected to boost aluminum demand [1]. - The automotive sector is seeing a rebound in orders and production due to new model launches and upcoming replacement subsidy policies, which supports aluminum demand [4]. Group 2: International Macro Factors - The divergence in the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicates ongoing market speculation regarding interest rate changes, which may influence commodity prices, including aluminum [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, have raised concerns about global trade and supply chain stability, potentially impacting aluminum supply [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper-aluminum ratio has significantly exceeded historical norms, leading to increased speculation in the aluminum market as investors anticipate a correction [3]. - Despite a seasonal decline in demand, the automotive sector and the rapid expansion of energy storage systems are expected to provide a counterbalance to the overall weakness in aluminum consumption [4][5]. - Current aluminum production capacity is constrained, limiting supply growth, while recent disruptions in overseas supply have further tightened the market [4][6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - While short-term demand may be weak, the long-term outlook for aluminum remains positive due to stable growth in transportation and energy storage sectors, as well as potential shifts in material usage from copper to aluminum [5][6]. - The financial attributes of aluminum are currently driving prices more than its commodity attributes, with significant capital inflow into the aluminum market post-holiday [5].