Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang·2026-01-05 10:46Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Goldman Sachs is optimistic about China's export prospects, forecasting a real export growth rate of approximately 8% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, with nominal export growth remaining robust at 5.6% in 2026 compared to 5.5% in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The resilience of China's exports is attributed to three main factors: rapid expansion of exports to emerging market economies driven by strong competitiveness of Chinese products and demand generated by Chinese foreign investments [2] - China holds a dominant position in rare earth and other critical mineral sectors, contributing to export strength [3] - There is potential for growth in high-tech exports, supported by policy initiatives and capital expenditure cycles related to the global artificial intelligence industry [3] Group 3 - In terms of consumption, the continuation of the "old-for-new" subsidy plan for consumer goods in 2026 is expected to support service consumption growth, which is anticipated to outpace goods consumption growth [3] - Investment growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 due to local government financing restrictions and "anti-involution" policies targeting overcapacity in certain industries [3] - However, with a policy emphasis on stabilizing investment in 2026, Goldman Sachs projects a rebound in fixed capital formation growth from 1.5% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026 [3]