利好来了！高盛：建议高配中国股票

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks for 2026, projecting annual stock price increases of 15% to 20% in 2026 and 2027, with corporate earnings growth of 14% and 12% respectively, alongside an estimated 10% potential for valuation recovery [1][2] Economic Outlook - China's actual GDP growth is expected to reach 4.8% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 4.5%, driven by structural resilience in exports and anticipated policy easing [2] - The fixed capital formation growth rate is projected to rebound from 1.5% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026, supported by fiscal expansion focusing on high-tech, urban renewal, and infrastructure related to people's livelihoods [2] Consumption Trends - While residential consumption growth is expected to slow in 2026, government consumption is anticipated to accelerate, offsetting the weakness in personal consumption [2] - The "old-for-new" subsidy plan for consumer goods is set to continue in 2026, with service consumption growth expected to outpace that of goods consumption due to policy support and structural upward potential [2] Export and Trade Dynamics - China's actual export volume growth is projected to be 5% in 2026, following an estimated 8% growth in 2025, with a current account surplus expected to increase from 3.6% of GDP in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026 [1] - The report highlights structural upward potential in Chinese exports, driven by global supply chain restructuring and an increase in the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing and high-value-added products [1]