为何中国茶业跑不出一个“茅台”？

Core Insights - The decline of the "Old Deng Economy" is forcing the liquor industry to rethink consumption scenarios, while the tea industry faces a similar yet fundamentally different set of challenges [1][5] Industry Overview - The traditional consumption model in the tea industry is undergoing profound changes as the "Old Deng Economy" loses its appeal, leading to a decline in social scenarios reliant on personal connections [2] - New-style tea drinks have gained popularity among younger consumers, with brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Bawang Tea emerging, but traditional tea remains stagnant due to its strong agricultural attributes [2][4] Market Dynamics - The tea market is highly fragmented, with the top five companies in the high-end tea segment holding only 5.6% market share, and Baima Tea, as a leading player, capturing just 1.7% [4] - The lack of interest from young consumers in traditional tea and intense product homogenization raise questions about the sustainability of tea companies' profit models and growth [4] Pricing and Product Strategy - Baima Tea's pricing strategy reveals a wide range for its products, from hundreds to tens of thousands of yuan per kilogram, indicating the non-standardized nature of tea as an agricultural product [7] - Despite suggested retail prices, the average selling price of Baima's products is significantly lower, with discounts of up to 35% available to franchisees [7][9] Financial Performance - Baima Tea's gross margin for tea sales reached 58.5% in the first half of 2025, with margins varying significantly across sales channels, from 45% for franchise sales to 79% for direct sales [9][13] - The company's revenue heavily relies on franchise sales, with over 50% of total income generated from selling products to franchisees [12][13] Business Model and Expansion - The franchise model has become a mainstream choice for traditional tea companies to expand rapidly and capture market share, although it weakens brand control over end channels [12][13] - Baima Tea's marketing expenses reached 3.44 billion yuan by the end of 2024, accounting for 31% of its revenue, indicating a strong focus on brand and marketing efforts [13] Challenges and Industry Trends - The tea industry struggles with a lack of brand recognition despite having numerous products, leading to a fragmented market where high-end tea remains underrepresented [9][13] - The complexity of the tea production process and the high costs associated with owning tea plantations pose significant challenges for companies seeking to control the entire supply chain [14][17] Future Outlook - The tea industry's ability to transition successfully in a modern context will depend on defining a new "tea drinking era" rather than merely replicating the success of the liquor industry [17]