管涛：或不一样的美元贬值

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Dollar Index has experienced its worst performance since 1973, with a cumulative decline of over 10% in the first half of 2025, driven by economic slowdown, high trade and fiscal deficits, and policies from the Trump administration that have eroded the credibility of the dollar [1][6]. Historical Dollar Depreciation Cycles - The ICE US Dollar Index, established in 1973, has undergone three major depreciation cycles since 1971, primarily driven by economic cyclical factors [2]. - The first cycle (1971-1978) was influenced by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and domestic economic challenges, leading to a 32% depreciation of the dollar index by 1978 [3]. - The second cycle (1985-1995) involved coordinated policy interventions and economic weaknesses, resulting in a 51% decline in the dollar index by 1995 [4]. - The third cycle (2001-2011) was linked to major crises, with the dollar index dropping 34% by the end of 2011 [5]. Unique Logic and Impact of Dollar Depreciation Since 2025 - The dollar depreciation since 2025 is characterized by non-economic, policy-driven factors, diverging from historical cycles that were primarily influenced by economic fundamentals [6][7]. - Trump's policies have introduced significant uncertainty, impacting the dollar's credibility through trade tariffs, fiscal deficits, and interference with the Federal Reserve [8][9]. Damage to Dollar's Credibility - Political foundations have been weakened due to damaged alliances and increased trade tensions, leading to a loss of trust among allies [8]. - Capital flows have been disrupted by tariff policies, which threaten the traditional dollar liquidity cycle [8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been compromised, raising concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [9]. - The dollar's safe-haven status is under threat due to rising fiscal deficits and increasing national debt [9]. Erosion of "American Exceptionalism" - The concept of "American exceptionalism," which has historically supported the dollar's resilience, is showing signs of decline, as evidenced by unusual market behaviors and capital flight from dollar assets [10]. - The dollar's depreciation has not yielded the expected improvements in trade balances, with significant increases in the trade deficit despite a 5.6% decline in the dollar's effective exchange rate [11]. Future Trends of Dollar Depreciation - Short-term fluctuations in the dollar index are expected, but the foundation for a sustained rebound appears weak [12]. - Long-term depreciation pressure is anticipated due to high valuations and the ongoing shift towards a multipolar currency system [13]. - The trajectory of the dollar will largely depend on the direction and magnitude of Trump's policy adjustments, particularly regarding tariffs and Federal Reserve independence [14].