油价回落缓解通胀担忧，美债收益率结束连涨，一周以来首次下跌

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds experienced their first increase in a week, driven by a decline in oil prices that alleviated concerns over persistent inflation, leading to a halt in rising yields [1] Group 1: US Treasury Bonds - On January 5, US Treasury yields slightly decreased, with the 10-year yield falling by 2 basis points to 4.17% and the 2-year yield dropping by 1 basis point to 3.46% [1] - The market's expectation of increased oil supply contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices, which in turn eased inflation concerns [5] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market is facing oversupply pressures, which has led to a decline in prices, further reducing inflation worries and reinforcing expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [5] - There is a market expectation that Venezuela's oil production may recover, potentially reversing a nearly 20-year trend of declining output [6][9] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Context - Despite geopolitical risks typically favoring safe-haven assets like Treasuries, US stock index futures rose, particularly in the tech sector, indicating a preference for risk assets under the expectation of liquidity easing [5] - Market focus remains on economic fundamentals, with investors closely monitoring upcoming US manufacturing data and the influential non-farm payroll report [8]