Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-05 12:25Group 1 - The event of the U.S. capturing Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife may lead to significant intervention in Venezuela's oil industry, impacting global oil supply and prices [1] - Short-term oil prices may see a slight increase, but volatility is expected to be limited due to global heavy oil inventories remaining within a safe range [1] - A long-term disruption in Venezuela could create a structural gap in global energy supply, with a need for $15-20 billion investment to increase heavy oil production by 500,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the short-term risk aversion in the market may reverse in the medium term, as geopolitical conflicts and U.S. fiscal deficits could weaken the long-term appeal of the dollar [2] - The energy sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints, while emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and parts of Africa, may face capital outflows and rising risk premiums [2] - The event is likely to influence global supply chains and investment strategies over a longer period, prompting multinational companies to reassess investment safety in Latin America [2] Group 3 - The event reinforces the importance of the "de-dollarization" trend for China, with increased focus on RMB-denominated energy trade and the "oil-for-loans" mechanism [2] - The U.S. geopolitical resource intervention model may further politicize and regionalize international energy investments, increasing uncertainty in global supply chains [2]