2026年中国车市迎来格局重塑年：国内销量承压与出口狂飙并行

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market achieved significant milestones in 2025, with new energy vehicle (NEV) penetration exceeding 50% and an expected export volume of 6.8 million units, maintaining its position as the world's largest exporter. However, signs of slowing sales growth in Q4 indicate a potential reshaping of the market landscape for 2026 [2] Market Performance - In Q4 2025, the automotive market did not exhibit the traditional "tail effect," with retail sales of passenger vehicles declining by 0.5% and 8.1% in October and November, respectively. The total number of new insurance registrations fell by 570,000 units year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in models priced under 200,000 yuan, which accounted for a decline of 545,000 units [2] - UBS predicts that the growth rate of domestic passenger car sales may significantly slow from 8% in 2025 to -2% in 2026, with wholesale growth potentially decreasing from 11% to 3% even when including export data [2] Policy Changes - Starting January 1, 2026, the long-standing NEV purchase tax exemption will be adjusted to a 50% reduction, with a maximum tax reduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle. Additionally, the new vehicle replacement subsidy will be linked to the price of new cars, encouraging consumption upgrades [3] - The new subsidy policy includes two categories: "vehicle scrappage and replacement" with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan for NEVs, and "vehicle trade-in" with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [3][4] Market Dynamics - The internal differentiation within the NEV market is expected to intensify, with plug-in hybrid vehicles projected to grow faster than pure electric vehicles, with growth rates of 14% and 9%, respectively, in 2026 [5] - The penetration rate of L2-level assisted driving functions in new passenger vehicles reached 64% in 2025, with expectations for L2-level features to become standard in 2026, surpassing 70% [6] Global Expansion - Facing domestic market pressures, Chinese automakers are accelerating their global expansion, with exports projected to grow by 16% in 2026, driven by a 39% increase in NEV exports. Key markets such as Europe, ASEAN, and Latin America are expected to see growth rates of 20% to 25% [6][7] - The export structure is evolving, with a shift from quantity-based exports to localized production models, as companies like BYD and GAC establish factories in countries like Thailand [7] Future Outlook - The automotive market in China is at a crossroads, transitioning from a phase of rapid growth driven by subsidies to one focused on technological advancement and global competitiveness. Industry experts predict that the overall growth rate will slow, with competition intensifying [8]