Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-05 13:28Core Viewpoint - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs on Chinese chips of 28nm and above starting June 2027, initially set at 0% and gradually increasing, reflecting a cautious approach due to reliance on Chinese supply chains [2][4][12]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Announcement - The U.S. Trade Representative's office announced tariffs based on Section 301 investigations into China's semiconductor trade practices, but the timing appears late given previous tariff increases [2][4]. - The initial tariff rate of 0% for 18 months suggests a strategic delay, allowing U.S. companies to adjust to the ongoing reliance on Chinese markets [2][4][12]. Group 2: U.S.-China Semiconductor Dynamics - The U.S. is targeting 28nm technology, crucial for automotive, industrial, and IoT applications, where China has gained significant market share due to cost efficiency and rapid delivery [6][14]. - Despite U.S. efforts to maintain its competitive edge, China's investments in semiconductor manufacturing have been substantial, with over $100 billion since 2014, indicating a robust industrial foundation [6][12]. Group 3: Chinese Industry Response - Chinese companies are leveraging the 18-month window to enhance production capabilities, with firms like Huagong Technology expanding operations in Vietnam and Malaysia [8][20]. - Domestic players such as SMIC and Hua Hong are increasing their production capacities, while local funds are supporting the semiconductor sector with significant investments [8][20]. Group 4: Global Semiconductor Landscape - The U.S. semiconductor legislation has not yet yielded significant results, with high costs and slow implementation hindering domestic production [10][16]. - China's position in the global semiconductor supply chain remains strong, with imports accounting for 37% and packaging exceeding 50%, indicating a critical role in the industry [16][18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The tariff announcement may serve as a test of China's resilience, with the potential for accelerated domestic industry consolidation and innovation in response to external pressures [18][22]. - The evolving landscape suggests that U.S. attempts to decouple from China may inadvertently strengthen China's semiconductor capabilities, positioning it for greater global influence [10][22].