Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (SZ:000792) Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-05 14:03Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has surged at the beginning of the year due to expectations of supply tightening, with significant increases in both futures and spot prices [1][3][5]. Price Movement - On January 5, lithium carbonate futures led the non-ferrous metal sector with a rise of 7.74%, closing at 129,980 yuan/ton. The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate also reached a new high of 124,350 yuan/ton, increasing by 7,100 yuan from the previous day [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Market analysts attribute the rising prices to a strong expectation of supply contraction, with the lithium market shifting from an oversupply to a tight balance due to increasing demand from energy storage [5][6]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has been declining for 19 consecutive weeks, indicating strong demand. As of December 2025, lithium salt plant inventories were reported at 603,000 tons, with an average inventory turnover of 50.4 days [6]. Future Supply Projections - Forecasts suggest that domestic lithium carbonate supply will increase by nearly 59% in 2026 due to the ramp-up of production from domestic salt lakes and the resumption of operations at Jiangxi lithium mines. Global lithium carbonate production is expected to reach 2.13 million tons, with an increase of 460,000 tons year-on-year [6][7]. Demand Growth - The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to grow significantly, with energy storage battery demand expected to add 250,000 tons, a 60% increase year-on-year. In contrast, demand from power batteries is expected to grow by 25% [7]. - The share of products sold to energy storage customers is approaching 50%, indicating a shift in market focus towards energy storage applications [7]. Industry Activity - The rising lithium carbonate prices have spurred increased merger and acquisition activity within the industry, with companies like Hualian Holdings and Salt Lake Co. actively acquiring lithium resources [7][8]. - Salt Lake Co. is expected to increase its lithium carbonate production capacity to 9,500 tons per year following its acquisition of a controlling stake in a lithium salt project [8].