研究报告 Research Report 10 Apr 2025 盐湖股份 Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (000792 CH) 2025Q1 扣非后净利润同比增长 28.83%-35.68%，五矿集团拟增持不少于 2.12 亿股 [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus Recurring net profit up 28.83%-35.68% YOY in 2025Q1, Minmetals Group intends to increase shareholding by at least 212 [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb16.75 目标价 Rmb20.34 HTI ESG 3.7-4.0-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 Rmb88.63bn / US$12.06bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$94.57mn 发行股票数目 5,292 ...

证券代码：000792 证券简称：盐湖股份 公告编号：2025-025 青海盐湖工业股份有限公司 关于实际控制人增持计划的公告 公司实际控制人中国五矿集团有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息内容真 实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 青海盐湖工业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）实际控制人中国五矿集团 有限公司（以下简称"中国五矿"）基于对公司未来持续稳定发展的信心和长期 投资价值的认可，为增强投资者信心，计划自本公告之日起 6 个月内，通过深圳 证券交易所系统允许的方式（包括但不限于大宗交易和集中竞价交易）增持公司 A 股股票。本次计划增持股份总数量不少于 21,166.29 万股。本次增持计划不设 置固定价格区间，中国五矿将基于对公司股票价值的合理判断，择机实施增持计 划。 公司于近日收到实际控制人中国五矿《关于股份增持计划的告知函》，现将 相关情况公告如下： 一、计划增持主体的基本情况 1、本次计划增持主体为公司实际控制人中国五矿。截至本公告披露日，增 持主体持有或控制公司股份的情 ...

2025 年 04 月 06 日 盐湖股份 (000792) ——业绩符合预期，钾肥景气回暖明显，碳酸锂反转仍需 时间，五矿入主打造中国盐湖 上 市 公 司 基础化工 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | maxy@swsresearch.com 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 21,579 | 15,134 | 19,092 | 21,066 | 22,236 | | 同比增长率（%） | -29.8 | -29.9 | 26.2 | 10.3 | 5.6 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 7,914 | 4,663 | 6,625 | 7,859 | 8,173 | | 同比增长率（%） | -49.2 | -41.1 | 42.1 | 18.6 | 4.0 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.49 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.49 | 1.54 | | 毛利率（%） | 56.0 | 51.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.134 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 29.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan, down 41.1% year-on-year [3]. - The company is a leading player in the potassium fertilizer market, with stable foundations and a significant cost advantage in lithium extraction from salt lakes [2][4]. - The company is implementing a three-step development strategy aimed at establishing a world-class salt lake industry by 2035, with ambitious production targets for potassium fertilizer and lithium salts [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.686 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.9%, and a net profit of 1.522 billion yuan, up 63.8% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The potassium chloride production for 2024 was 4.96 million tons, with a sales volume of 4.6728 million tons, reflecting a 16.56% year-on-year decline in sales volume [4]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride in 2024 was 2,507 yuan per ton, down 3.97% year-on-year, while the sales cost decreased to 1,170 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross margin of 53.34%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The lithium carbonate production increased by 10.92% year-on-year to 40,000 tons, but the average selling price fell by 56.31% to 74,000 yuan per ton, with a gross margin of 50.68%, down 21.77 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Future Outlook - The company has a 40,000-ton lithium salt project that is 55% complete, with plans to release part of the new capacity in 2025, expecting to produce 3,000 tons [6]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5.52 billion yuan, 6.44 billion yuan, and 7.02 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to lower lithium prices and reduced new lithium salt production [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a net profit of 1.13 billion to 1.2 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.97% to 28.47% [1] Group 1: Production and Sales Performance - In Q1, the company produced approximately 964,900 tons of potassium chloride and sold about 891,100 tons, while carbon lithium production was around 8,514 tons with sales of approximately 8,124 tons [8] - The sales volume of carbon lithium saw a slight decrease compared to the same period last year, while potassium chloride sales increased by approximately 16.6% [9] - The market price of potassium chloride has rebounded significantly after a two-year decline, positively impacting the company's revenue [10] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 15.134 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.86%, and a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan, down 41.07% from the previous year [3] - Despite the decline, the company maintained a competitive edge compared to peers, with a gross margin of 50.68% for lithium products, significantly higher than competitors [6][4] Group 3: Strategic Development and Future Outlook - The major shareholder, China Salt Lake Industrial Group, has outlined a long-term capacity expansion plan aiming for 10 million tons/year of potassium fertilizer and 200,000 tons/year of lithium salt by 2030 [2][12] - The company is actively aligning with the strategic goals of its major shareholder to enhance resource acquisition and expand its potassium and lithium resource industry [2] - The ongoing construction of a 40,000-ton lithium salt project is progressing well, with expectations to produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year, with significant capacity release anticipated next year [11][13]

Group 1: Company Overview and Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of CNY 15.134 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 4.663 billion in 2024, with a basic earnings per share of CNY 0.8812 [2] - The total assets amounted to CNY 45.783 billion, with total liabilities of CNY 6.189 billion, maintaining a safe debt level [2] - The company produced approximately 4.96 million tons of potassium chloride and sold about 4.6728 million tons in 2024, holding a market share of around 40% in the domestic potassium chloride market [2][3] Group 2: Lithium Production and Projects - The company produced about 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.92%, with sales reaching approximately 41,600 tons [3] - The new 40,000 tons lithium salt integrated project has a total investment optimization rate of approximately 14.58%, with a signed contract amount of CNY 4.243 billion [3][4] - The project construction is progressing well, with 55% of the overall project completed [4] Group 3: Stock and Shareholder Information - The company completed the cancellation of 141 million shares, accounting for 2.60% of the total share capital prior to cancellation [4] - The company is actively researching policies to optimize its financial structure and enhance shareholder returns, with plans for a more attractive and sustainable dividend policy [20] Group 4: Research and Development - The company invested CNY 200 million in R&D in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, completing nearly 100 research projects and applying for 114 patents [5] - The company aims to align its R&D efforts with national strategic needs, focusing on green low-carbon and digital transformation [5] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The company expects a net profit of CNY 1.13 billion to CNY 1.2 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.97% to 28.47% [7] - The potassium chloride market is anticipated to see price increases due to supply-demand dynamics, with China’s potassium chloride import volume reaching 12.63 million tons in 2024, a 9% increase year-on-year [13] - The company is focusing on enhancing its production capacity to meet the growing demand for potassium fertilizer, which accounts for about 25% of global consumption [11][12] Group 6: Cost Control and Efficiency Improvement - The company emphasizes cost control as a core aspect of its management strategy, aiming to enhance economic efficiency and market competitiveness [9] - Various measures are being implemented to optimize resource utilization and reduce production costs, including technological upgrades and process optimization [15][16] - The company is committed to sustainable development through efficient resource management and cost reduction strategies [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by falling prices of potassium and lithium, but there are expectations for a recovery in the future [3][4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue of 15.134 billion yuan, down 29.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan, down 41.07% year-on-year [3][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to show a positive turnaround, with expected net profit growth of 20.97% to 28.47% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 15.134 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan, down 41.07% year-on-year [3][6]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride fell by 13.76% to 2506.57 yuan/ton, while sales volume decreased by 16.56% to 4.6728 million tons [3]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate dropped by 56.26% to 74,000 yuan/ton, despite a sales volume increase of 10.51% to 41,600 tons [3]. Market Outlook - The potassium chloride market is expected to gradually recover due to stable demand and supply constraints from major producers [4][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a potential increase in potassium fertilizer prices as the spring farming season approaches [5]. Production Capacity and Cost Advantages - The company has a potassium chloride production capacity of 5 million tons per year, leading the domestic market with approximately 35% market share [3]. - The lithium carbonate production capacity is currently 40,000 tons per year, with plans to expand to 43,000 tons in 2025, leveraging cost advantages from its salt lake resources [6]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 1.04 yuan and 1.18 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.93 and 14.07 based on the closing price of 16.56 yuan [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company aims to build a world-class salt lake industry cluster, focusing on the continuous growth of lithium carbonate sales in 2024 [2][11] - The company's revenue for 2024 was 15.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.66 billion yuan, down 41.1% year-on-year [5][7] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to the falling market prices of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, with average prices dropping by 16% and 65% respectively [7][10] - Despite the price drop, the company increased its lithium carbonate production by 10.92% year-on-year, achieving a sales volume of 41,600 tons [7][12] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.9% [6][10] - The gross profit margin for lithium carbonate fell by 21.8 percentage points to 50.7%, while the gross margin for potassium chloride increased by 2.0 percentage points to 53.3% [7][12] - The company plans to optimize its salt lake industry chain and resource integration by 2025, with a focus on expanding production capacity in lithium salts [12][13] Market Outlook - The report projects the company's revenue for 2025 to be 17.42 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 5.59 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery in performance [13][40] - The company is actively expanding its lithium salt production capacity, which is anticipated to contribute to sustained revenue growth [13][40] Product Segment Performance - For potassium chloride, the sales volume in 2024 was 4.67 million tons, a decrease of 16.56% year-on-year, while the gross margin was 53.3% [7][17] - The sales volume of lithium carbonate reached 41,600 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.51%, but the revenue from this segment fell by 51.7% due to price declines [7][17] Strategic Initiatives - The company is transitioning its main business towards high-value-added areas, including potassium carbonate and potassium hydroxide processing [12][13] - The integration of high-quality salt lake resources is expected to enhance collaboration among upstream and downstream enterprises, improving control over the industry chain [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 due to falling lithium and potassium prices, with revenue down 29.9% year-on-year to 15.13 billion yuan and net profit down 41.1% to 4.66 billion yuan [1][12]. - The company is actively integrating into the "Three-Step Strategy" of China Salt Lake, aiming to expand its production capacity significantly by 2030 [4][41]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.9% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.66 billion yuan, down 41.1% [1][12]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 4.68 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 19.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.8% [1][15]. Operational Analysis - Lithium carbonate production capacity stands at 40,000 tons, with actual production and sales of 40,000 and 41,600 tons respectively in 2024. The average selling price of lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan per ton, down 56.3% year-on-year [2][30]. - Potassium chloride production was targeted at 5 million tons, with actual production and sales of 4.96 million and 4.67 million tons respectively, reflecting a year-on-year sales decline of 16.6% [3][33]. Strategic Insights - The company is focused on cost advantages and capacity expansion, with plans to produce 43,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2025 and ongoing construction of a 40,000-ton lithium salt project [4][42]. - The company holds the leading position in potassium chloride production in China, which is crucial for national food security, as domestic potassium fertilizer production only accounts for 10% of global capacity [4][44]. Investment Recommendations - The lithium industry is expected to maintain an oversupply situation, with lithium prices stabilizing at a low range. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.20 billion, 6.38 billion, and 7.08 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [5][49].

2025 年3 月29 日，公司披露2024 年年报，公司实现总营业收入151.34 亿元，同比减少29.86%；实现归 母净利润46.63 亿元，同比减少41.07%。 钾锂齐头并进，价格下滑拖累业务 事件 近年来，公司聚焦建设世界级盐湖产业基地，氯化钾稳定在500 万吨，占到国内市场35%左右。碳酸锂 产能达到4 万吨，占到全国8%左右。2024 年公司钾肥实现产销量496 万吨和467.28 万吨，分别同比 +0.69%和-16.56%；实现碳酸锂产销量4 万吨和4.16 万吨，分别同比+10.92%和+10.51%。2024 年钾肥和 碳酸锂均价分别较2023 年同比下滑约16%和65%，价格下滑拖累了公司整体业务表现。 实控人变更中国五矿，积极融入中国盐湖"三步走"发展战略2024 年，公司的股权结构与管理格局迎来 重大变革，实际控制人正式变更为中国五矿，同时，控股股东中国盐湖工业集团有限公司成立，为公司 发展注入全新活力。公司控股股东中国盐湖将实施"三步走"发展战略，到2025 年内完成整合优化，具 备世界一流盐湖产业的雏形；到2030 年形成1000 万吨/年钾肥、20 万吨/年锂盐、3 万吨以 ...