截至2025年7月11日 10:39，中证稀有金属主题指数强势上涨2.41%，成分股三川智慧20cm涨停，北方稀土上涨9.85%，中科磁业上涨8.22%，盛和资源、中国 稀土等个股跟涨。稀有金属ETF(562800)上涨2.35%。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证稀有金属主题指数前十大权重股分别为盐湖股份、北方稀土、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、中国稀 土、西部超导、中矿资源、厦门钨业，前十大权重股合计占比54.07%。 流动性方面，稀有金属ETF盘中换手3.5%，成交3072.86万元。拉长时间看，截至7月10日，稀有金属ETF近1周日均成交3771.17万元，居可比基金第一。 规模方面，稀有金属ETF近1年规模增长1682.40万元，新增规模位居可比基金第一。数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。稀有金属ETF最新融资买入额达 207.87万元，最新融资余额达2128.11万元。 截至7月10日，稀有金属ETF近1年净值上涨30.36%。从收益能力看，截至2025年7月10日，稀有金属ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为24.02%，最长连涨月 数为3个月，最长连涨涨幅为14.06%，上涨月份平均 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - Potassium is one of the three essential nutrients for crop growth, often referred to as "the grain of food" [2] - The global potassium fertilizer market is projected to reach USD 28.12 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% expected until 2033 [27] - The supply of potassium is dominated by a few major players, leading to a clear oligopoly in the industry [2][44] Industry Overview - Potassium is essential for crop growth, with a market size exceeding USD 100 billion [15] - The potassium resource is divided into solid potassium ores and potassium brine, with solid potassium ores being the majority [28] - Global potassium resources are unevenly distributed, with China holding only 4% of the world's reserves, leading to significant reliance on imports [2][53] Demand Analysis - Global potassium fertilizer demand is expected to grow steadily due to population increases, with an average annual growth rate of 2.67% projected from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Key regions driving demand include China, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, with specific agricultural practices increasing potassium usage [3][18] - By 2030, global potassium fertilizer demand is anticipated to reach 85.2 million tons [3] Supply Analysis - Capital expenditures for greenfield potassium projects are substantial, with development cycles typically ranging from 7 to 10 years [4] - Major projects, such as BHP's Jansen project, are expected to significantly increase global potassium production capacity [4][20] - If current projects are completed on schedule, global potassium production could reach 90.9 million tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.35% from 2024 to 2030 [4] Price Trends - Short-term price trends for potassium fertilizers are expected to be strong, influenced by supply constraints and high demand in key markets [5] - The price of potassium fertilizers is projected to face upward pressure until 2026, after which it may stabilize as new projects come online [5][26] - The long-term price will be supported by marginal costs, despite potential oversupply in the future [5]

东兴证券指出，2025年一季度产业链终端需求仍维持较高增长态势，电池等环节在盈利向上同时收入端 亦显现回暖，锂电板块整体景气度有所回升，同时固态电池等产业链新技术自2024年下半年出现多次催 化推动行情逐步产生升力，2025—2026年伴随着新技术商业化进程的持续推动，板块有望迎来利润端的 修复与估值的提升，当前时点板块业绩稳健且兼具弹性，具备一定的配置价值。2025年下半年板块格局 趋稳有望迎来基本面重回上升的机遇，同时固态电池等新技术商业化进程的提速以及低空、机器人等新 应用领域增量需求有望形成持续催化。 国盛证券指出，当前产业对需求端中长期增长维持乐观态度，消耗前期现金储备以待行业好转；同时低 成本盐湖及中资一体化企业入场后，供给端抗价格波动能力增强，"囚徒困境"下行业拐点或有后移。但 若锂价维持低位中枢，可期待供给侧加速出清，权益端或有提前反应。资源低成本保供+非锂业务多元 化经营是当前行业稀缺竞争优势，具备前述特征的企业可凭借优质资源+冶炼一体化生产构筑成本缓冲 垫，非锂业务平滑业绩并支撑企业估值，企业有望平稳度过行业低谷，待格局向好后赚取行业出清收 益。推荐标的：中矿资源（002738）。相关标的 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 有色金属 锂：资源端加速出清，关注锂板块底部布局机会 价格：供需利好信号不断，锂价连续上涨。碳酸锂主连自 6 月 23 日触及 5.9 万元/吨（含税）价格底部后连续上涨，截至 7 月 4 日涨至 6.4 万元/ 吨（含税），涨幅 8.1%。成本端，锂辉石自 6 月 23 日上涨 6%至 7 月 4 日 653 美元/吨，成本支撑 6.5 万元/吨（含税），锂云母自 6 月 23 日上涨 12%至 7 月 4 日 1327.5 元/吨（含税），成本支撑 7.2 万元/吨（含税）。本 轮价格上涨，主因澳矿缩量信号不断，需求端下游电车整治"内卷式"竞 争，宏观情绪较强，期现价格均有上涨。 供给：澳矿密集释放缩量信号，产能出清进入中后阶段。历经两年半的磨 底期，我们认为锂板块已处于产能出清的中后阶段，作为市场出清的风向 标——澳矿密集释放缩量信号。（1）当前价格已降至澳洲成本敏感区间， Cattlin、Finniss、Bald Hill、Pilbara（（部））已处于产产护状态，，部） 产矿山下调产量指引。2025Q1 样本澳矿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.32% on July 4, with 13 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the banking and media sectors, which increased by 1.84% and 0.91% respectively [1] - The sectors that saw the largest declines were beauty care and non-ferrous metals, with decreases of 1.87% and 1.60% respectively [1] - The basic chemical industry ranked third in terms of decline today [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 21.74 billion yuan, with 8 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The computer industry had the largest net inflow of capital, totaling 2.81 billion yuan, despite a slight decline of 0.05% in its stock price [1] - The banking sector also saw a net inflow of 758 million yuan, with a daily increase of 1.84% [1] Basic Chemical Industry Performance - The basic chemical industry fell by 1.22%, with a total net outflow of 2.174 billion yuan [2] - Out of 401 stocks in this sector, 41 stocks rose, and 354 stocks fell, with 4 stocks hitting the daily limit down [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the basic chemical sector were Huafeng Super Fiber (1.62 billion yuan), Dongcai Technology (1.39 billion yuan), and Limin Co., Ltd. (1.24 billion yuan) [2] Basic Chemical Industry Capital Inflow and Outflow - The top stocks with capital inflow included: - Huafeng Super Fiber: +1.83%, 16.59% turnover, 161.85 million yuan inflow - Dongcai Technology: +10.01%, 11.12% turnover, 138.64 million yuan inflow - Limin Co., Ltd.: +5.83%, 22.57% turnover, 124.30 million yuan inflow [2][3] - The top stocks with capital outflow included: - Dazhongnan: +2.55%, 38.91% turnover, -195.83 million yuan outflow - Wanhua Chemical: -0.86%, 0.72% turnover, -137.99 million yuan outflow - Yanhai Co., Ltd.: -2.43%, 0.88% turnover, -98.39 million yuan outflow [3]

证券代码：000792 证券简称：盐湖股份 青海盐湖工业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-005 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研□ 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □ □业绩说明会 媒体采访 | | | □ 新闻发布会□ 路演活动 | | | ☑现场参观 | | | ☑其他（电话会议） | | 参与单位名称及 | 现场参观： | | 人员姓名 | 民生证券 徐 颖 袁 浩 | | | 国联民生证券 丁士涛 | | | 银华基金 张 腾 | | | 长城基金 任柯宇 | | | 罗 春 拙一资本 | | | 国君资管 罗子博 | | | 新华资产 严 涛 | | | 前海辰星 涂欣雨 | | | 风启投资 彭小娟 | | | 电话会议： | | | 中信资管 刘琦、唐萤等 10 人 | | | 长江证券 孙国铭 | | 时间 | 年 月 月 月 日 2025 6 24 日、6 25 日、7 1 | | 地点 | 公司 1 号办公楼 | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事会秘书李舜 | | 员姓名 | 证券事务代表巨敏 1、问：气温对公司生产的影响？上半年生产经营情况？ ...

Group 1 - The core index of the petrochemical industry, the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, rose by 0.37% to 1009.79 points with a trading volume of 11.339 billion yuan on July 1 [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 2.08%, but it has decreased by 2.96% over the last three months and by 4.36% year-to-date [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in key industries such as steel, shipping, petrochemicals, textiles, light industry, equipment, and logistics, with a base date of December 31, 2008, set at 1000.0 points [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings in the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index include Wanhua Chemical (9.98%), China Petroleum (9.61%), China Petrochemical (8.1%), and others [1] - The index's market composition shows that 70.15% of holdings are from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, while 29.85% are from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - In terms of industry composition, raw materials account for 75.54% and energy for 24.46% of the index holdings [1] Group 3 - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2] - Public funds tracking the petrochemical industry include various funds from Huaxia and E Fund, such as Huaxia China Securities Petrochemical Industry Link A and E Fund China Securities Petrochemical Industry ETF [2]

盐湖股份 20250627 摘要 盐湖股份 2025 年一、二季度氯化钾和碳酸锂产销符合预期，通过优化 工艺、加强合作及套期保值确保产销衔接顺畅，成本控制良好，氯化钾 成本约 1,000-1,200 元/吨，碳酸锂完全成本加税后不到 40,000 元/吨， 均具全球成本优势。 五矿控股后，盐湖股份管理模式向央企融合，战略上，中国盐湖集团规 划至 2030 年形成 1,000 万吨钾肥、20 万吨锂盐及 3 万吨镁基材料产 能，正积极推进"一二三"三步走发展战略。 钾肥业务方面，盐湖股份以"走出钾"战略为主，计划收购高地资源、 兖矿能源在加拿大和西班牙的钾矿项目，目前正进行资源评估和技术论 证，该项目由控股股东中国五矿主导。 锂盐业务方面，盐湖股份当前任务是解决同业竞争问题，完成后计划在 青海、西藏、新疆等地收购或并购优质锂盐矿，以扩大锂盐产能。 公司看好氯化钾后市，因全球粮食需求增长及战略资源地位，中国钾肥 进口依赖度高，地缘政治影响供应，主要生产国集中，需求国分散。 Q&A 盐湖股份 2025 年的主要产品产销目标是什么？ 盐湖股份 2025 年氯化钾的产销目标均为 500 万吨左右，碳酸锂的产销目标为 4 ...

毫无疑问，中国锂电，尤其动力与储能电池江湖正在经历极度残酷的内卷周期。 内卷与竞争有多惨烈？或许，财务数据可以给我们管中窥豹的机会。24潮产业研究院 (TTIR) 将 100家锂电上市公司 （动力与储能电池产业链为主） 作为研究分析样本，2022年至2024年，100 家锂电上市公司 "扣非后归母净利润" 合计分别为1894亿元、915亿元、538亿元，2023年、2024 年下滑幅度分别为51.67%、41.21%；若是剔除宁德时代，2022年-2024年锂电上市公司 "扣非后 归母净利润" 降幅分别为68.08%和82.84%。 笔者曾多次强调，在锂电大退潮席卷全球的当下，财务健康已经成为衡量企业持续生存与发展力 最核心的指标，甚至没有之一。 本文笔者试图从 "扣非后归母净利润"、"金债差"、"固定资产购置折旧差" 三个维度分析对比， 判断中国锂电上市军团谁更具有穿越产业周期的能力与潜力。特别注，本文仅是一家之言，意在 抛砖引玉，为读者朋友提供一种思考视角，不构成投资建议，也欢迎读者朋友交流、探讨，甚至 批评。 三大指标意义及说明 一是，"扣非后归母净利润" 这一指标，这一指标越高，则说明上市公司越能依靠 ...