规则变了！中国对一带一路顺差首超美国，全球贸易正在换重心

Core Viewpoint - China's trade surplus with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries has surpassed its surplus with the United States for the first time, indicating a significant shift in global trade dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Surplus Data - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's trade surplus with BRI countries accounted for 45% of its total trade surplus, approximately $480 billion, while the surplus with the U.S. dropped to 24%, a decline of over 10 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - This shift represents a historical turning point in global trade, moving the focus away from the U.S. as a dominant trade partner [1][10]. Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. has transformed from a key customer to an unreliable variable due to actions such as tariffs, supply chain decoupling, and technology restrictions, which have inadvertently pushed China to diversify its trade routes [4][10]. - The trade relationship with BRI countries is characterized by a more pragmatic approach, focusing on cost-effectiveness and reliable supply rather than political conditions [8][10]. Group 3: Belt and Road Initiative - The BRI has evolved into a multifaceted trade ecosystem, with over 155 participating countries, representing nearly 80% of global nations, primarily from developing and emerging markets [6]. - China's manufacturing products have a natural competitive advantage in these markets, ranging from infrastructure equipment to consumer goods [6][8]. Group 4: Financial and Trade Implications - The shift in trade surplus structure signifies a transition from a single-core dependency to a diversified trade network, impacting global financial systems and the balance of power [10][12]. - The increasing use of the Chinese yuan in trade settlements among BRI countries indicates a gradual move away from dollar dominance, suggesting a potential reconfiguration of global financial rules [12][16]. Group 5: Strategic Outlook - This transition is not without risks, as BRI countries may face political instability and market volatility, but it represents a critical step for China in diversifying its trade relationships and reducing reliance on any single market [14][18]. - The change in trade dynamics signals a potential decline in U.S. influence and a redefinition of global trade rules, marking a new era in international relations [16][18].