ATFX：不是简单避险，这一次，黄金正在对全球秩序重新定价

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has been significantly impacted by a sudden geopolitical event, specifically the U.S. military action against Venezuela, which has heightened risk aversion and reinforced gold's status as a preferred defensive asset globally [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The U.S. military action against Venezuela has disrupted the market's perception of geopolitical risks, leading to a rapid increase in gold prices, which reached over $4,370, with a daily increase of nearly 1% [1]. - This event signifies a notable escalation in great power competition, prompting a reassessment of the uncertainty premium in the global political order [1]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East, suggest that the Venezuelan incident is part of a broader trend of prolonged geopolitical risks [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent rise in gold prices occurred despite a strengthening U.S. dollar, indicating that funds are not entirely abandoning dollar-denominated assets during this risk-off phase [1]. - Gold prices are currently experiencing a consolidation phase around $4,330, with strong support at $4,300 and resistance at $4,418, reflecting a strong market structure rather than a trend reversal [3]. - The market is navigating two competing narratives: a short-term dollar strength driven by capital inflows and technical recovery, and a medium-term expectation of a shift towards looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization trends, and reassessments of sovereign asset safety continue to support gold prices from both supply and structural perspectives [6]. - The market's acceptance of higher gold prices, with discussions around $5,000 and beyond, indicates a shift in the pricing center for gold [6]. - Upcoming U.S. economic data, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI, will provide new insights into dollar and interest rate expectations, while the aftermath of the Venezuelan incident may continue to influence market sentiment [6].