美银报告梳理存储超级周期五大核心支撑，大幅上调SK海力士、三星电子、南亚科技目标价

Core Viewpoint - The global memory industry is expected to enter a "super cycle" starting in 2026, driven by explosive AI demand, structural supply shortages, and technological advancements, with DRAM sales projected to surge from $130.3 billion in 2025 to $209.8 billion in 2026, a 61% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Super Cycle Support Factors - The memory industry is transitioning from a cycle of "expansion-overcapacity-price decline-reduction" to a high-quality growth phase due to the rigid demand from AI and supply constraints [2] Group 2: AI Demand Surge - AI accelerators like Nvidia's Rubin Ultra GPU and Google's TPU v7 are significantly increasing the demand for high-end memory, with HBM capacity per AI server rising from 340GB to 1.17TB, indicating a long-term shift in demand from traditional PC and smartphone markets to AI-driven applications [3] Group 3: Supply Constraints - Major chip manufacturers are focusing capital expenditures on high-end areas like HBM and eSSD, leading to a structural reduction in traditional DRAM capacity, with inventory levels at 3-4 weeks, well below the normal 1-2 months [4] Group 4: Price Increases and Profitability - Traditional DRAM contract prices rose over 30% in Q4 2025 and an additional 15% in Q1 2026, with 16Gb DDR5 spot prices exceeding $30, reflecting a more than 500% increase since early 2025, translating into significant profit growth for companies like SK Hynix and Samsung [5] Group 5: Capital Expenditure Optimization - SK Hynix's capital expenditure is expected to double to 35 trillion KRW in 2026, primarily for HBM capacity expansion, while maintaining a limited impact on overall supply due to a focus on high-end investments [6] Group 6: Technological Advancements - The introduction of new memory technologies like HBM4 and GDDR7 has raised industry barriers, with SK Hynix holding over 60% market share in HBM and leading production schedules, shifting competition from price to technology [7] Group 7: Key Companies and Their Strategies - SK Hynix is positioned as a leader in the HBM market, with a projected operating profit of 86.2 trillion KRW in 2026, benefiting from high demand and price increases [10] - Samsung Electronics, with the largest memory production capacity, is expected to leverage price elasticity and capture additional orders as competitors reach capacity limits, with target prices adjusted to 170,000 KRW for common stock [12] - Nanya Technology focuses on legacy DRAM products, anticipating a 6% increase in ASP due to supply shortages, with a target price raised to 235 NTD [14] Group 8: HBM Market Outlook - HBM is projected to be the fastest-growing segment in the memory industry, with global sales expected to reach $55 billion in 2026, driven by technological advancements and increased demand from AI accelerators [13] - SK Hynix is expected to maintain a 53% market share in HBM sales, while Samsung's share may rise to 25%, indicating a competitive landscape characterized by one dominant player and several strong competitors [15]