Is Altria's Smoke-Free Push Enough to Stabilize Growth Over Time?

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is adjusting its growth strategy in response to declining cigarette demand, focusing on a diversified smoke-free portfolio to stabilize growth over time [1][4] Group 1: Altria's Strategy and Performance - Domestic cigarette shipment volumes for Altria fell by 8.2% in Q3 2025, influenced by the rise of flavored disposable e-vapor products and tighter consumer spending [1][8] - Altria is emphasizing a diversified smoke-free portfolio that includes oral nicotine, e-vapor, and heated tobacco to adapt to changing consumer preferences [1][4] - The oral nicotine segment is showing the strongest progress, with Altria's nicotine pouch brand, on!, holding an 8.7% retail share of the total oral tobacco category in the first nine months of 2025 [2] - Altria launched on! PLUS, a premium nicotine pouch aimed at traditional smokeless tobacco users and competing pouch consumers [2][8] - The company is facing challenges in the e-vapor market as it integrates NJOY, while also advancing its heated tobacco efforts through the Horizon joint venture [3][4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Philip Morris International Inc. is also shifting towards smoke-free products, with these products accounting for approximately 41% of its net revenues in Q3 2025, and shipment volumes increasing by 16.6% year over year [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. reported a significant increase in Modern Oral sales, which surged by 627.6% year over year to $36.7 million, representing about 30.8% of total net sales [6] Group 3: Financial Metrics and Estimates - Altria's shares have gained 0.6% over the past month, compared to the industry's growth of 5.2% [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Altria is 10.3X, lower than the industry's average of 14.35X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 6.3% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026 [10]