从委内瑞拉到伊朗，政权更迭预期为何反成油价利空？

Core Insights - The traditional logic of geopolitical risks driving oil prices is being fundamentally rewritten due to the U.S. shale oil revolution and the normalization of the "shadow market" for sanctioned oil [1][2] - The current oil market has split into two parallel worlds: a transparent public market and a "don't ask, don't tell" market for sanctioned oil, which has buffered geopolitical shocks [3] - The expectation of regime change no longer solely implies supply disruption; instead, it may lead to normalized oil trade and increased market supply, negatively impacting energy investors [2][4] Market Dynamics - Venezuela's oil production now accounts for less than 1% of global supply, approximately 900,000 barrels per day, a significant decline from its previous market share of over 3% [1] - The U.S. refining system is primarily designed to process heavy crude oil from Venezuela, not light crude from domestic shale, indicating a structural dependency [4][6] - If sanctions are lifted, U.S. refiners could more easily access the heavy crude they need, potentially lowering costs and improving refining margins [4] Geopolitical Impact - The flexibility of U.S. shale producers allows for rapid adjustments in production in response to price fluctuations, diminishing the impact of geopolitical events on U.S. gasoline prices [6] - Historical events that previously caused significant oil price spikes, such as the 1979 Iranian Revolution, no longer have the same effect due to the current market structure [1][6] - Challenges remain for restoring production in Venezuela, including high costs, unresolved legal disputes, and local security issues, which complicate the recovery of this unstable country's oil sector [6]