西方专家：中国电网一旦最终成熟，将影响全球乃至掀起能源革命

Core Insights - China's electricity development reflects the modernization and industrial upgrading of the nation, evolving from a mere 1.85 million kilowatts of installed capacity at the founding of the People's Republic of China to a projected 3.35 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024, making it the largest in the world [2][31]. Historical Development - The first electric light in China was lit in 1879 in Shanghai, but it was largely symbolic and did not impact the general populace [4]. - At the founding of New China, the annual electricity generation was 4.3 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to the consumption of a medium-sized city today [5]. - Prior to the reform and opening-up in 1978, China's electricity construction faced multiple challenges, including funding shortages and outdated technology, leading to frequent power outages and limited industrial production [7]. Reform and Growth - Post-1978 reforms marked a significant shift, with electricity being prioritized for economic development, leading to rapid expansion in thermal power and rural electrification [8]. - By 1987, installed capacity surpassed 100 million kilowatts, alleviating power shortages [8]. - The 1990s saw systematic and large-scale electricity construction, with major projects like the Three Gorges Dam laying the groundwork for future energy stability [10]. Structural Changes - The 2002 electricity system reform separated generation and grid operations, introducing market competition and significantly improving operational efficiency [12]. - Installed capacity grew from approximately 300 million kilowatts in 2000 to over 1 billion kilowatts in 2010, and is expected to reach 3.35 billion kilowatts by the end of 2024 [12]. New Energy Revolution - China is transitioning from coal dependency to a diversified energy structure, with non-fossil energy sources projected to account for 58.2% of total installed capacity by the end of 2024, aiming for around 60% by 2025 [21]. - Major hydropower projects like the Three Gorges and Baihetan have significantly reduced coal consumption and carbon emissions [15]. - Wind and solar power have evolved from supplementary sources to primary energy sources, with costs dropping over 80% compared to a decade ago [19]. Technological Advancements - China has developed strong cross-regional transmission capabilities through self-developed ultra-high voltage technology, enabling efficient long-distance power transmission with low line loss [22]. - The national unified electricity dispatch system enhances grid resilience and stability, effectively managing extreme weather and equipment failures [24]. Economic Impact - Reliable and low-cost electricity supports the growth of energy-intensive industries, providing a competitive edge for sectors like manufacturing and AI data centers [26][27]. - Stable electricity pricing reduces uncertainty for businesses, fostering expansion and innovation [27]. Global Influence - China's electricity industry is increasingly exporting technology and capabilities globally, with core products like solar panels and wind turbines being widely adopted in international projects [29]. - This export includes comprehensive capabilities in planning, design, construction, and management, reshaping the global energy market [29].