内行人预测：2026年房价，可能出现这3种“现象”，提前了解

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to stabilize around 2026, but significant price increases are unlikely, with a focus on gradual recovery rather than explosive growth [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall real estate market is on a path to stabilization, with a notable reduction in the decline of property sales area and a smaller price drop of approximately 7% in second-hand homes, indicating a phase of "price for volume" [5][10]. - Predictions suggest that national housing prices will likely fluctuate within a narrow range of -3% to +2% in 2026, making it difficult to see a return to a "buy and profit" market [7][9]. - The market is expected to remain near the bottom, seeking a new equilibrium rather than experiencing rapid price increases [9]. Group 2: Urban and Sector Disparities - There is a growing disparity between cities and districts, with significant differences in property values and market conditions becoming more pronounced [12][15]. - Major cities and strong second-tier cities are seeing stable demand, while areas with declining industries and populations are likely to struggle [12][15]. - The focus for buyers should shift from national trends to specific local conditions, assessing the viability of individual properties based on their location and market dynamics [15]. Group 3: Shift in Housing Types - The market is transitioning from a focus on pre-sale properties to an emphasis on completed homes, with longer inventory turnover periods and a significant decline in land sale revenues [17][22]. - The government is promoting a "see it, touch it" approach to home buying, aiming to reduce systemic risks associated with unfinished projects [22][24]. - Developers will face increased challenges in relying on high turnover and leverage, necessitating a focus on product quality and service [24][28]. Group 4: Future Implications - The central government emphasizes a shift from high-leverage, high-turnover models to a focus on quality and risk prevention in the real estate sector [26][28]. - The future of housing demand will prioritize quality over mere availability, with a focus on "good cities + good houses" rather than widespread price increases [26][28].