亚洲开发银行：2026年越南经济迎来三大战略机遇

Core Insights - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) highlights three strategic opportunities for Vietnam's economy by 2026, despite facing global challenges [2][3] Economic Performance - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the 6.8% growth in the same period of 2024 [2] - Inflation remains manageable at approximately 3.3%, with credit growth expected to reach 18%-19%, exceeding the 16% target [2] - Exports reached $430 billion, a 16.1% increase year-on-year, while imports totaled $410 billion, up 18.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $20.5 billion [2] - Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows amounted to $23.6 billion, an 8.9% increase year-on-year [2] Challenges - Economic losses from natural disasters and climate change are estimated at $4 billion, nearly 0.8% of GDP [3] - High dependence on trade and foreign investment makes the economy vulnerable to global fluctuations [3] - Rapid credit growth poses risks to liquidity and financing costs within the financial system [3] Strategic Opportunities - Structural reforms to improve the business environment, strengthen institutional frameworks, and enhance labor productivity [3] - Digital transformation leveraging a young, tech-savvy workforce to develop sectors like digital services, fintech, e-commerce, and smart logistics [3] - Capitalizing on global supply chain restructuring to attract high-quality foreign investment in electronics, high-tech, and green industries, alongside renewable energy and climate-resilient infrastructure [3] Long-term Goals - ADB sets a target for Vietnam to achieve an average GDP growth of 10% from 2026 to 2030 and to become a high-income country by 2045, acknowledging the significant challenges ahead [3] Investment Focus - Public investment is seen as a key driver for short-term economic growth, while long-term investments in high-quality infrastructure, particularly in clean energy and modernized power grids, are essential for attracting private and foreign investments [4] - Emphasis on investing in human capital, developing digital, technical, and green skills, and strengthening social security systems to enhance productivity and promote inclusive growth [4]