2026年大类资产配置逻辑的变局与重构

Group 1 - In 2025, global macroeconomic uncertainty drove structural market trends, with rising prices for precious and industrial metals, and a "slow bull" market in A-shares supported by relative certainty [3][4] - The performance of precious metals, industrial metals, and rare metals was influenced by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors, leading to significant price increases [3][4] - The "strong stocks, weak bonds" trend characterized the market, with equity markets performing well, particularly in hard technology sectors like AI and non-ferrous metals [4][9] Group 2 - In 2026, the global market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on growth and inflation driving asset allocation, influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve policies and the progress of AI technology [6][8] - The anticipated economic growth center for 2026 is around 2.6%, with key macro variables including U.S. fiscal policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7][8] - The demand for metals such as copper, silver, and aluminum is expected to rise due to the AI industry's growth, although supply-side growth may lag, leading to potential price volatility [9][11] Group 3 - The commodity market in 2026 is projected to remain strong under "macro easing and micro improvement," but trading logic will differ across various commodities [11] - The chemical sector, particularly in photovoltaic and lithium battery industries, may see price recoveries if supply-side reforms are implemented [11][12] - The recommendation for 2026 asset allocation is to actively hold quality equity assets while managing risks, as market fluctuations are expected in the latter half of the year [12]