楼市筑底进行时：政策持续发力，中国房地产何时走出低谷？

Group 1 - Beijing's new real estate policy reduces the social security requirement for non-resident families purchasing homes outside the Fifth Ring from 2 years to 1 year, aiming to boost market confidence [1] - As of December 19, 2025, new home transaction area in 36 cities decreased by 15.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions in 15 cities increased by 2.3% [1] - By Q3 2025, the real estate industry's contribution to GDP turned positive, reaching 0.8% [1] Group 2 - Recent policy signals indicate that stabilizing the real estate market is a key economic task for 2026, with a shift in focus from "stopping the decline" to "stabilizing the market" [3] - The government will implement more proactive fiscal policies in 2026, expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools [3] - The focus on the real estate market will shift to "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," indicating a supply-side approach to adjust land and new housing supply based on market demand [3] Group 3 - The acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing is a significant policy tool, helping real estate companies quickly recover funds while increasing the supply of affordable housing [5] - As of November 2025, the area of unsold commercial housing has decreased for nine consecutive months, with a reduction of 3.01 million square meters in November alone [5] Group 4 - The Chinese real estate market shows significant differentiation among cities, with varying market trends and recovery times [7] - From January to November 2025, second-hand residential prices in 100 cities fell by 7.46%, with first-tier cities down 5.52% and second-tier cities down 8.24% [7] - In contrast, new home prices in the same period increased by 2.29%, with first-tier cities seeing the largest increase of 5.82% [7] Group 5 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to accelerate the construction of a new real estate development model, which requires market stability as a prerequisite [9] - A key aspect of the new model is the reform of the sales system, promoting a "real-time sales" approach to fundamentally prevent delivery risks [9] Group 6 - Different institutions have varying predictions on when housing prices will stabilize, with estimates suggesting that new home prices may decline by less than 2% in 2026, while the second-hand market may face pressure until 2027 [11] - According to analysis, first-tier cities may stabilize by the end of 2025, while strong second-tier cities may stabilize between 2026 and 2027 [11] Group 7 - As of December 24, 2025, the area of residential land transactions in 300 cities decreased by 12.3% year-on-year, with land transfer fees down by 8.0% [13] - The "control increment" policy is leading to a reduction in new construction area, transitioning the market from a phase of scale expansion to one characterized by stock operation and quality improvement [13]