ICBC(SH:601398) Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-05 20:05Core Viewpoint - The current banking environment shows no large-scale deposit outflows, but banks are not lacking deposits, as customer preferences dictate their choices between renewing deposits or investing in higher-yield products [1][2][3] Group 1: Customer Behavior - Conservative customers prefer to renew their deposits despite declining interest rates, valuing the safety and stability of fixed deposits over higher-risk investments [2][3] - A significant portion of customers, including those with investment experience, are considering reallocating their funds into wealth management products, funds, or stocks as deposit rates decline [6][7] - The upcoming maturity of approximately 50 trillion yuan in medium to long-term fixed deposits by 2026 raises questions about where these funds will be directed [1][4] Group 2: Banking Strategies - Banks are actively promoting structured deposits to meet customer needs for capital preservation while offering potential for higher returns [3][5] - The competition among banks is shifting from a "price war" to a "value war," focusing on product innovation and customer-centric services to retain deposits [6][7] - Different types of banks face varying levels of deposit outflow risk, with state-owned banks experiencing more liquidity issues rather than outright loss of deposits, while smaller banks may see higher outflow rates [6][7] Group 3: Market Predictions - Analysts predict that a large majority of maturing fixed deposits will either be renewed or converted to demand deposits, with only a small fraction expected to flow into wealth management products [4][5] - The expected maturity of fixed deposits in 2026 includes 39.2 trillion yuan for one-year deposits, 20.7 trillion yuan for two-year deposits, 9.6 trillion yuan for three-year deposits, and 1.3 trillion yuan for five-year deposits [4]