帮主这就给你整理一份中长线放心拿的低估值高股息核心标的清单，都是经过基本面和估值双重筛选的，咱们做中长线就认"稳"字： 最后是制造板块的优质标的，高股息+低估值，还有产业逻辑支撑。比如福耀玻璃，全球汽车玻璃龙头，股息率3.5%左右，估值15倍上下，新能源汽车渗透 率提升，玻璃需求稳增，而且海外工厂盈利不错，长期逻辑很硬；再就是中国铁建，基建龙头，股息率4%以上，估值不到8倍，稳增长政策下基建订单充 足，现金流稳定，分红也靠谱。 这里帮主得提醒一句，这些标的是中长线布局的方向，不是让你下周一把梭哈，还是按照之前说的分批加仓，结合3850点附近的企稳信号来操作。需要我再 把每个标的的最新估值和股息率数据细化，或者补充对应的加仓节奏吗？ 然后是公用事业板块，刚需属性拉满，不管市场怎么跌，业绩都稳得一批。首选长江电力，水电龙头中的龙头，股息率常年维持在3.5%-4%，现金流稳定得 像"印钞机"，而且水电是清洁能源，政策支持力度大，拿着完全不用慌；再就是中国神华，煤炭+电力双驱动，股息率能到5%以上，资源储备足，分红大 方，属于"高股息+硬资产"双buff加持。 接下来是消费板块里的错杀白马，估值回到合理区间，股息率也 ...

证券时报记者 毛军 受外围市场大幅震荡，以及上证指数月线连续6个月上涨积累大量获利盘的影响，本周A股出现年内第二大周线级 别调整。上证指数跌破3900点，深证成指跌破13000点，创业板指、上证50双双失守3000点大关。 本周，日成交均萎缩至2万亿元以下，全周成交9.33万亿元，较上周减少近9000亿元。从分类指数来看，微盘股缩 量最为明显，环比减少约15%。 展望后市，渤海证券指出，A股短期由外部风险释放带来指数层面的调整。就现阶段而言，行情总体风险适中，监 管强调"坚决防止市场大起大落、急涨急跌"的背景下，市场不具有持续下跌的基础，市场调整为资金重新布局提 供了窗口期。若未来有增量利好政策出台，将有望推动政策主线或科技主线的展开。 太平洋证券表示，目前海外股市表现更弱，多个主要经济体如德国、英国、美国股市皆已转弱，建议投资者谨慎 为上。即使A股进入中期调整，但长期的上涨趋势预计不变，建议投资者采取高筑墙（红利），广积粮（降低仓 位），缓称王（等待时机）的策略。从近几日的行情来看，热点板块的持续性普遍不佳，仍建议投资者以避险的 高股息红利为主，留出仓位等待未来的加仓时机。 虽然银行股近年来连续上涨，但整体 ...

转自：新华财经 中国工商银行贺州分行（以下简称"工行贺州分行"）积极践行国有大行责任，将支持居民合理住房需求 作为服务民生的重要抓手，全面提升个人贷款服务可获得性与满意度。截至2025年10月末，该行个人住 房贷款余额超31亿元，年度累计投放近3亿元，持续为贺州市安居工程建设注入金融动能。 深化银企协作，拓展服务覆盖面 工行贺州分行高度重视住房金融生态建设，持续加强与本地优质房地产项目的战略合作，在巩固现有合 作基础上主动对接市场新动态，积极联系"金投国宾府""东城雅苑"等新开盘项目，通过全面考察开发企 业资质与项目进展，前置服务沟通、定制融资方案，为购房群体提供高效、专业的住房按揭支持，助力 新建楼盘销售与住房贷款业务协同发展。 为破解贷款办理周期长的痛点，工行贺州分行多措并举提升服务体验：深化与口碑良好的二手房中介常 态化合作，及时响应交易双方融资需求；为重点合作项目开通绿色通道，提供优先受理、材料精简及流 程加速服务；同步建立贷款进度台账，明确各环节时效责任，确保业务高效衔接。相关举措显著缩短业 务周期，有效提升一二手房贷款服务满意度。 创新服务模式，破解民生痛点 针对住房交易中的难点问题，工行贺州分行 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月21日 **Acknowledgement** **The authors thank the anonymous referee for the help and comments on the manuscript.** 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 4.83%、8.65%、6.20%、9.69%、7.59%、 7.40%、12.16%、16.45%。中信一级行业指数中石油石化、纺织服装、 基础化工、家电、钢铁行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、综合 金融、商贸零售、非银行金融、建筑行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概 念指数中，石油天然气、锂矿、林木、锂电池、HJT 电池、万得微盘股 日频等权、操作系统等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，共 1127 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.05% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.52% [1] - Over 3,000 stocks declined across both markets, with a total trading volume of 1.11 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The consumer sectors, including tourism, hotels, food, and retail, showed weakness, with significant declines in stocks such as Shuiyang Co., Nanjing Shanglv, and Yike Food [3] - The banking sector performed strongly, with China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank reaching historical highs [3] - The lithium battery supply chain was active, with stocks like Baichuan Co. hitting the daily limit [3] - The photolithography concept continued to show strength, with Guofeng New Materials achieving two consecutive trading limits [3] Corporate Actions - China International Capital Corporation, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities announced a suspension of trading due to plans for a major asset restructuring, involving a share swap merger [3] Economic Indicators - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is estimated at 32.7% [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to monitor market trends and identify potential market leaders. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market trends and highlights stocks or indices that are leading the market, aligning with the principles of momentum and trend-following strategies[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable price paths and consistent momentum, as smoother price trajectories are associated with stronger momentum effects[24][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: The selection process involves the following criteria: - **Analyst Attention**: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: 250-day price change in the top 20% of the market - **Price Stability**: Stocks are ranked based on: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Ratio of price displacement to the total price path - **Sustainability of New Highs**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - **Trend Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these criteria are selected[24][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the importance of smooth price paths and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24][27]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative distance of a stock's price from its 250-day high, serving as an indicator of momentum and trend strength[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The formula is: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, making it a reliable indicator for identifying market leaders[11]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the smoothness of a stock's price trajectory, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of price displacement to the total price path over a specified period - Rank stocks based on this ratio and select the top performers[24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor highlights stocks with stable momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33]

Core Insights - The state-owned large bank sector experienced a decline of 0.55% on November 21, with Postal Savings Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Bank Performance Summary - China Bank (601988) closed at 6.29, up 0.80% with a trading volume of 6.807 million shares and a transaction value of 4.294 billion [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) closed at 8.25, down 0.24% with a trading volume of 4.644 million shares [1] - China Construction Bank (601939) closed at 9.79, down 0.31% with a trading volume of 1.800 million shares [1] - Bank of Communications (601328) closed at 7.62, down 0.39% with a trading volume of 2.440 million shares [1] - Agricultural Bank of China (601288) closed at 8.05, down 1.35% with a trading volume of 3.334 million shares [1] - Postal Savings Bank (601658) closed at 5.81, down 1.69% with a trading volume of 2.113 million shares [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The state-owned large bank sector saw a net outflow of 394 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 308 million yuan [1] - The fund flow for individual banks shows that: - Bank of Communications had a net inflow of 49.743 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank had a net inflow of 2.533 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - China Bank experienced a net outflow of 14.801 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - China Construction Bank had a net outflow of 46.069 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Postal Savings Bank saw a significant net outflow of 125 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Agricultural Bank of China had a net outflow of 261 million yuan from institutional investors [2]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4][24] - As of November 21, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 4.83%, Shenzhen Component Index 8.65%, CSI 300 6.20%, CSI 500 9.69%, CSI 1000 7.59%, CSI 2000 7.40%, ChiNext Index 12.16%, and STAR 50 Index 16.45% [5][24] - Among the CITIC primary industry indices, the sectors closest to their 250-day new highs include petroleum and petrochemicals, textiles and apparel, basic chemicals, home appliances, and steel [8][24] Group 2 - A total of 1,127 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number of new highs in the basic chemicals, machinery, and power equipment and new energy sectors [2][13][24] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the textiles and apparel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with respective proportions of 41.41%, 38.89%, and 38.71% [13][24] - The cyclical and manufacturing sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 364 and 315 stocks respectively [15][24] Group 3 - The report identifies 15 stocks that have shown stable new highs, including Heertai, Sry New Materials, and Cangge Mining, with the manufacturing and cyclical sectors contributing the most stocks [3][20][25] - The construction industry had the highest number of new highs within the manufacturing sector, while the non-ferrous metals industry led in the cyclical sector [20][25]

Core Viewpoint - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Shandong Branch is actively promoting rural revitalization through its "Xingnong Cuohe" platform, providing comprehensive services to support agricultural modernization and enhance the rural economy [1][2][4]. Group 1: Agricultural Modernization Initiatives - ICBC Shandong Branch has organized over 300 activities related to policy promotion, product introduction, and supply-demand matching, serving more than 47,000 agricultural operators by the end of October 2025 [1]. - The bank aims to create a new model of integration among government, banks, enterprises, and farmers, effectively linking land, technology, capital, and markets to promote the distribution of specialty agricultural products nationwide [2]. Group 2: Cross-Border Services and Support - During the 8th China International Import Expo, ICBC Shandong Branch facilitated connections between local SMEs and nearly 30 international suppliers, providing comprehensive support for enterprises to explore international markets [3]. - The bank has established a product information database for over 180 specialty products from targeted assistance areas, fostering stable order cooperation with large chain supermarkets and food processing companies [3]. Group 3: Participation in Agricultural Events - ICBC Shandong Branch showcased its rural revitalization initiatives at the first Shandong (International) Agricultural Products Trade Fair, featuring nearly 10,000 specialty agricultural products and over 1,000 participating enterprises [4]. - The bank promoted its "Qilu Xingnong Loan" product, offering a full range of financial services to agricultural clients, enhancing the efficiency and accessibility of financial support for rural development [4]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Financial Support - The bank has provided over 5 billion yuan in loans to support agricultural logistics and storage projects, ensuring efficient operation of wholesale markets and supermarkets [5]. - A total of over 50 billion yuan has been allocated to support facility agriculture and large-scale farming, enhancing production capacity in key regions [5]. - The "Qilu Xingnong Loan" system has added nearly 30 billion yuan in loans to address financing challenges faced by small agricultural enterprises and cooperatives [5].

Core Viewpoint - Recent changes in the disclosure of personal loan non-performing asset (NPA) transfer information by banks indicate a shift towards less transparency, with key data no longer available to the public, reflecting a strong demand for rapid capital recovery by banks [2][4][5]. Disclosure Changes - Since November, banks have stopped disclosing auxiliary valuation information such as starting prices, average outstanding principal and interest balances, and write-off statuses in their NPA transfer announcements [3][4]. - The announcements now include a watermark stating "unauthorized reproduction prohibited," indicating a tightening of information access [3]. Impact on Asset Management Companies (AMCs) - Although some information is hidden from public view, AMCs can still access most data through corporate accounts, except for write-off statuses, which are crucial for assessing asset value [4][5]. - The write-off status is significant as it indicates the bank's assessment of the likelihood of recovering the asset, affecting the discount rates of asset packages [4]. Market Dynamics - The pilot program for bulk transfers of personal non-performing loans began in 2021, initially involving a limited number of banks, but has since expanded to include more institutions, leading to a more standardized process [5]. - The decision to limit public information is seen as a necessary step as the market stabilizes, reducing the risk of misinterpretation by non-participants [5]. Transaction Process Changes - The transaction process has accelerated, with banks significantly shortening payment deadlines in recent announcements compared to earlier in the year [6]. - For example, a state-owned bank reduced the payment and agreement signing periods from five working days to three and two days, respectively [6]. Market Growth - The scale of personal non-performing loan transfers is expanding, with over 100 projects announced, indicating a faster pace of asset disposal [7]. - As of the end of Q1 this year, the scale of personal non-performing loan bulk transfers reached 37.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 761.4% [7]. - The banking sector has disposed of 1.5 trillion in non-performing assets in the first half of the year, contributing to a decrease in both the balance and rate of non-performing loans [7].