2025年国内商品：贵金属经历“史诗级一年”，沪铜再创纪录新高，原油黯然失色

Global Economic Overview - In 2025, global trade tensions intensified, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times during the year, while an AI boom swept across the globe amid escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.41% for the year, surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high since 2015 [1] - The Chinese yuan appreciated by 4.43% throughout 2025, achieving its largest annual increase in five years [1] - The yield on China's 10-year government bonds increased by approximately 20 basis points, while the yields on 30-year and 50-year bonds rose by about 40 and 50 basis points, respectively [1] Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals experienced significant gains in 2025, with gold and silver prices reaching record highs; Shanghai gold hit 1024 yuan, and Shanghai silver reached 19998 yuan [3] - Silver outperformed gold with a remarkable annual increase of 128.57%, while gold rose by 58.28% [3] - The price surge was supported by trade wars, U.S. interest rate cuts, and a weakening dollar, alongside strong safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties [3][4] Base Metals Performance - Base metals saw a robust performance in 2025, with Shanghai copper achieving a 33.17% annual increase, marking its largest annual gain since 2009 [5] - Shanghai copper prices reached a record high of 102660 yuan, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply risks [5] - Tin and aluminum also performed well, with tin rising by 31.88% and aluminum increasing by 15.90% due to supply constraints [5] Lithium Carbonate Trends - Lithium carbonate prices experienced a "V"-shaped recovery in 2025, with an overall increase of 58% for the year [6] - The first half of the year saw prices decline due to oversupply, but a tightening of regulations and increased demand in the second half led to a significant price rebound [6] - By year-end, lithium carbonate prices peaked at 135,000 yuan, driven by a surge in demand from the energy storage market and new energy vehicles [6] Steel Industry Dynamics - The steel industry in China continued to undergo a deep adjustment cycle in 2025, with structural demand differentiation evident [7] - High-end manufacturing steel demand grew, while the real estate sector remained weak, impacting construction steel demand [7][8] - Despite a slight recovery in profitability due to lower coal prices and export support, the overall steel market faced challenges, with significant price volatility [7][8] Agricultural Commodities Overview - In 2025, U.S. soybean prices rose by 3.7%, marking the first increase in three years, primarily driven by improved export prospects following a trade agreement with China [9][10] - Domestic soybean meal and oil prices remained under pressure due to high inventories and abundant global supply, limiting upward price movement [9][10] Oil Market Trends - International oil prices experienced significant declines in 2025, with U.S. crude oil falling over 20% and Brent crude dropping more than 18% [11] - The overall weak trend was influenced by oversupply, economic pressures, and easing geopolitical risks, despite occasional price spikes due to conflicts [11] Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector index fell over 10% in 2025, marking the largest annual decline in a decade, with several key products hitting historical lows [12] - Supply pressures and weak demand contributed to the downturn, although some segments like polyester showed relative resilience [12]