2026年人民币或延续升值趋势并维持双向波动

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is experiencing a steady appreciation against the US dollar, driven by multiple factors including year-end settlement demand and expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of December 31, the CFETS yuan exchange rate index rose to 97.99, up 0.35% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket index reached 104.67, up 0.25%, marking a new high since April 2025; and the SDR currency basket index hit 92.71, up 0.26%, the highest since March 2025 [1]. - The yuan's midpoint against the US dollar was reported at 7.0288, the highest since September 30, 2024, with a cumulative increase of 1596 basis points in 2025 [1]. - The offshore yuan broke through 6.97 against the US dollar on January 2, reaching its highest level since May 2023 [1]. Factors Influencing Yuan Appreciation - Analysts attribute the yuan's appreciation to the weakening of the US dollar index, which fell below 100, and increased corporate settlement demand at the end of the year [2]. - The seasonal strengthening of the yuan is also linked to the release of accumulated settlement demand from high export growth [2]. - The counter-cyclical policy has moderated the pace of the yuan's appreciation, indicating a preference for a gradual increase in the exchange rate [2]. Outlook for 2026 - The yuan is expected to continue its appreciation trend in 2026, influenced by the relative strength of the US and Chinese economies, changes in US interest rates, and the evolution of China's foreign trade relationships [3][4]. - The potential for a 4-5% annual appreciation of the yuan is seen as not detrimental to China's export sector, with a forecasted exchange rate range against the US dollar between 6.7 and 7.1 [4]. - The CFETS index is projected to fluctuate between 97 and 103, with a maximum appreciation of around 5% anticipated for the year [4].