泰国正式取消小额包裹免税政策：对国内跨境电商影响有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The termination of the tax exemption for imported goods under 1500 Thai Baht in Thailand marks a significant policy shift that poses challenges for Chinese cross-border sellers, particularly those relying on low-price strategies to compete in the market [1][3][20]. Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy is a comprehensive measure that includes the introduction of a 7% VAT on all imported goods starting from July 2025, followed by the complete removal of the tax exemption threshold in January 2026, requiring all imports to pay both VAT and customs duties [3][9]. - Different product categories face varying tax rates, with clothing and footwear reaching up to 30%, bags and accessories around 20%, and electronics approximately 10% [3][11]. - The policy applies universally across all online platforms and delivery channels, including major e-commerce platforms like Lazada and Shopee [3][11]. Impact on Local Businesses - The primary motivation behind the tax changes is to alleviate the financial pressure on local Thai businesses, which have been struggling due to the influx of low-cost Chinese imports [3][8][20]. - The previous tax exemption led to significant losses for local manufacturers, with nearly 2000 factories closing in the last two years alone [8][20]. Seller Reactions and Market Dynamics - The immediate reaction from cross-border sellers has been one of panic, as the new tax burden threatens their already slim profit margins, which typically hover around 10% [12][20]. - Sellers face two difficult choices: absorb the new tax costs or raise prices, both of which could lead to a drastic decline in sales due to Thai consumers' sensitivity to price [14][20]. - Some sellers are considering exiting the Thai market or cutting low-margin products from their offerings [14][20]. E-commerce Platform Adjustments - In response to the new regulations, platforms like Shopee have introduced measures such as commission waivers for new stores to help sellers manage initial operational costs [14][16]. - However, compliance requirements for sellers have also increased, with stricter penalties for non-compliance being implemented [16][18]. Broader Regional Trends - Thailand's tax policy changes are part of a wider trend across Southeast Asia, where countries are tightening cross-border tax regulations, signaling the end of an era characterized by low-price competition [20][27]. - Other countries in the region, such as Vietnam, are also implementing stricter tax measures, indicating a shift towards a more regulated e-commerce environment [25][27]. - The overall direction of Southeast Asian trade is moving from attracting cross-border supply to establishing a more orderly and compliant market, emphasizing quality and regulatory stability over low pricing [27].