ICBC(SH:601398) Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-05 21:51Core Viewpoint - The current banking environment shows no large-scale deposit outflows, but banks are not lacking deposits, as customer preferences dictate their choices between renewing deposits or seeking higher returns through other financial products [1][2][3]. Group 1: Customer Behavior and Preferences - Many conservative customers prefer to renew their fixed deposits despite declining interest rates, valuing the safety and stability of deposits over potential higher returns from riskier investments [2][3]. - A significant portion of customers, particularly those with investment experience, may consider reallocating their funds into wealth management products, funds, or the stock market upon deposit maturity, depending on their risk appetite [6][7]. - The trend indicates that while some customers are exploring alternative investment options, a majority are likely to continue renewing their deposits or switching to higher-yielding banks [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - By 2026, approximately 50 trillion yuan of medium to long-term fixed deposits will mature, with a significant portion expected to remain within the banking system through renewals or conversion to demand deposits [5]. - The competition among banks is shifting from a "price war" to a "value war," focusing on product innovation and customer-centric services to retain deposits and attract new customers [7]. - The structural differentiation in deposit outflows is evident, with state-owned banks facing more liquidity issues rather than outright deposit losses, while smaller banks may experience higher outflow rates [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Products and Strategies - Banks are actively promoting structured deposits to meet customer needs for capital preservation while offering some yield flexibility [3]. - There is a growing interest in low-risk wealth management products as customers seek alternatives to traditional deposits, indicating a shift in investment strategies among consumers [4][5]. - Analysts predict that the stock market may benefit from the reallocation of deposit funds into wealth management and insurance products, although these alternatives may not provide substantial returns [5][6].