陆前进：以“AI美元”复刻“石油美元”霸权，能成吗

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around whether artificial intelligence (AI) could become a new anchor asset for US dollar hegemony, similar to oil, is gaining traction in US strategic and industrial circles. Despite the ongoing dominance of the dollar as the primary international reserve currency, there are increasing speculations about the US attempting to leverage "AI dollars" to maintain its dollar supremacy [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Dollar's International Role - The evolution of the dollar's role as an international currency can be divided into four stages: the Bretton Woods system where the dollar was pegged to gold, the "petrodollar" era where oil transactions were dollar-denominated, the financial derivatives phase where dollar-denominated financial products dominated, and the current phase where the dollar seeks to integrate with AI and stablecoins [2][3][4]. - The Bretton Woods system established the dollar's international currency status by linking it to gold, which led to a significant increase in demand for dollars among other countries [2]. - The "petrodollar" system emerged after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, where oil transactions were conducted in dollars, further solidifying the dollar's position in international trade and finance [3]. Group 2: Current Developments and Future Prospects - Currently, the US is attempting to bind AI technology and digital currencies to the dollar to maintain its international monetary dominance, with initiatives like the "GENIUS Act" aimed at establishing rules for stablecoins and integrating cryptocurrencies into the financial system [4][5]. - The rise of AI and cryptocurrencies presents new challenges and opportunities for the dollar's international role, as the US seeks to leverage its technological advantages to reinforce the dollar's status [5][6]. - However, the feasibility of replicating the "petrodollar" system with AI is questioned due to the lack of unique characteristics that oil possesses, such as irreplaceability and concentrated supply chains [7]. Group 3: Global Monetary System Dynamics - The trend towards a diversified international monetary system is accelerating, with increasing calls for alternatives to the dollar as the sole reserve currency, as evidenced by the growing roles of the euro and the renminbi in global trade and finance [8][9]. - The dollar's dominance is being challenged by its "weaponization" and the negative effects of over-reliance on a single currency, prompting a global reassessment of the international monetary landscape [9].