Core Viewpoint - China's urea export volume decreased to 601,800 tons in November 2025, but the cumulative export from January to November reached 4,616,300 tons, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2023 [1] Group 1: Urea Production and Prices - Urea production in China for January to December 2025 was 71,130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with December production slightly rising to 6,040,000 tons [1] - As of January 3, 2026, urea prices in Henan ranged from 1,640 to 1,660 CNY per ton, while in Shandong, prices ranged from 1,660 to 1,690 CNY per ton; CFR China small granular urea was quoted at 400 USD per ton, up by 10 USD from the previous week [1] - Domestic coal-based urea operating rate was 89.5%, up by 2.5% month-on-month but down by 1.3% year-on-year; natural gas-based urea operating rate was 48.4%, down by 1.9 percentage points month-on-month but up by 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: New Capacity and Inventory - In December 2025, new urea production capacities included stable operations at Gansu Jinchang Energy (300,000 tons/year) and Gansu Liu Chemical (350,000 tons/year), while the 520,000 tons/year facility by Zhengyuan Hydrogen Energy is delayed until 2026 [2] - Urea production companies' inventory decreased for eight consecutive weeks, reaching 1,019,200 tons by December 31, a reduction of 49,700 tons month-on-month and 531,600 tons year-on-year [2] - Domestic urea port inventory stood at 172,000 tons, showing little change from early December 2025, with most ports maintaining low levels [2] Group 3: International Market Trends - International urea prices have stabilized and increased, with FOB urea prices in China at 400 USD per ton, a week-on-week increase of 10 USD and a year-on-year increase of 150 USD [3] - Despite being in the traditional off-season for agricultural demand, some industrial demand has recovered due to environmental regulations, supporting market sentiment and leading to increased stocking by traders [3] Group 4: Other Demand Factors - The operating rate of domestic compound fertilizers showed insufficient rebound, recorded at 37.75% as of December 25, 2025, down by 1.5 percentage points month-on-month and 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Urea exports to South America from January to November 2025 totaled 686,000 tons, accounting for 14.9% of total exports, primarily to Brazil and Chile [4] - The ongoing geopolitical situation in Venezuela is expected to drive up international fertilizer prices, potentially increasing China's export prices [4]
储备需求和出口托底 尿素价格坚挺
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2026-01-05 23:46