2026关键词 | 变局、挑战、突破，十大首席经济学家预测新动向

Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth outlook for 2026 is influenced by increasing geopolitical competition, affecting both traditional trade and innovation sectors like AI [4] - The dual circulation model in China is evolving, with internal circulation improving supply while external circulation shows new patterns in capital exports to emerging markets [4][5] US Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points in early 2026, bringing the target range to 3.00%-3.25% due to a cooling labor market [9][10] - The Fed faces a balancing act between inflation concerns and employment risks, with internal divisions on the need for further monetary easing [9][10] Chinese Economic Policy - China's economic growth is projected to remain around 5% in 2026, supported by a recovery in global trade and internal demand stabilization through counter-cyclical policies [24] - The fiscal policy will be more proactive, with an expected increase in deficit and government debt issuance to support economic recovery and consumer spending [25][32] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China is still in a downward phase, with significant declines in housing prices and sales, indicating a need for cautious optimism [34][35] - A comprehensive policy approach is required to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on debt resolution and easing transaction restrictions [36][37] Stock Market and AI Sector - The A-share market is expected to stabilize around the 4000-point mark, driven by institutional investments and a shift in market dynamics [39][40] - The AI sector is seen as a long-term growth driver, with significant potential for productivity improvements and a shift from speculative to performance-based valuations [42][43]