山东齐盛期货：焦煤补库预期仍存

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices showing a trend of initial decline followed by recovery and subsequent consolidation as it enters 2026. Market sentiment remains cautious due to various evolving factors impacting the coking coal market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The core contradiction in the current coking coal market lies in the downward pressure transmitted from the downstream steel industry, where weak steel prices are compressing profit margins for steel mills, leading them to seek cost reductions from raw material suppliers [1] - The fourth round of price reductions for coke has been fully implemented, further impacting the coking coal market as steel mills push for lower procurement prices [1] - The spot market is reacting sharply, with a high auction failure rate of 36.6% in Shanxi's major mines, indicating a cautious purchasing attitude among downstream enterprises [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The end of the year typically sees a reduction in coal production due to maintenance and safety regulations, with the utilization rate of coking coal mines dropping to 79.6%, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points [2] - Despite the supply reduction, prices have not seen a corresponding increase, as the market anticipates a return to normal production levels in 2026, which is expected to fill any short-term supply gaps [3] - The inventory of imported coal remains high at ports, with limited downstream purchasing activity, putting additional pressure on prices [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Although there are significant pressures on supply and demand, new positive factors are emerging, such as the anticipated recovery in steel production as maintenance activities conclude, which could support coking coal demand [4] - The government's policy direction for large-scale equipment updates in 2026 may not immediately translate into physical demand for coking coal but could positively influence market expectations [4] - The current downward trend in coking coal prices is seen as a necessary market clearing process, with potential for recovery as steel mills' profit margins improve and inventory levels adjust [5]