业内人士：原油市场短期地缘溢价或上升

Core Viewpoint - The recent turmoil in Venezuela, the country with the largest proven oil reserves, has drawn global attention to the oil market, with expectations of only a short-term price premium due to limited export capacity and near-saturated global storage [1] Group 1: Current Situation and Impact - Venezuela's heavy crude oil production has been reduced by approximately 25% due to U.S. sanctions, leading to a current output of about 500,000 barrels per day [1] - The political vacuum following U.S. control over Maduro may disrupt port and logistics systems, further impacting oil exports [1] - Current estimates suggest that Venezuela's oil production may decline to between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels per day, with exports potentially dropping to 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day [1][2] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The supply elasticity of Venezuelan oil depends on political developments; a pro-U.S. regime could lead to a gradual easing of sanctions and a potential recovery of production to 1.2 to 1.5 million barrels per day within 6 to 12 months [2] - Conversely, if instability persists, production could fall below 500,000 barrels per day [2] - The refining sector may experience short-term declines in capacity due to management chaos and raw material shortages, but foreign investment could restore deep processing capabilities in the long term [2] Group 3: Global Oil Market Dynamics - Current global oil inventories are sufficient, with OECD oil stocks exceeding the five-year average by 120 million barrels, and the U.S. strategic and commercial reserves are also ample [3] - Venezuela's oil exports account for about 3% of global oil trade, and countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia can quickly replace its heavy crude supply [3] - The global oil market remains oversupplied, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting that the increase in global oil supply will significantly outpace demand growth through 2026 [3] Group 4: Potential Risks and Geopolitical Factors - The situation in Venezuela could escalate geopolitical tensions in other regions, potentially affecting global oil prices, especially if unrest in Iran intensifies [4]