张尧浠：避险与宽松双驱动、金价仍有牛市新高前景

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, reaching a high of $4,455.48 and closing at $4,448.83, marking a significant increase of 2.78% from the previous close of $4,328.35 [1][3][5] Price Movement - Gold opened at $4,346.46 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,344.06, and then rebounded to a high of $4,455.48 during the day, ultimately closing at $4,448.83 with a daily range of $111.42 [3][5] - The market is currently observing a potential pullback due to profit-taking and anticipation of key economic data releases, such as the non-farm payroll report [3][5] Market Outlook - If geopolitical tensions escalate or if U.S. economic data strengthens expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may challenge historical highs again [3][5] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026, which could provide further support for gold prices [5] Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have shown a significant pullback, indicating potential risks of a larger correction towards the $4,000-$3,900 range [7] - However, if the current momentum continues, there is potential for gold to reach $5,500-$6,000 [7] - Weekly analysis suggests that while there may be a pullback towards the 10-week moving average at $4,230, the overall trend remains bullish, providing opportunities for re-entry into long positions [7][9] Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,410 and $4,380, while resistance levels are at $4,480 and $4,500 [9] - For silver, support is noted at $75.10 and $74.10, with resistance at $78.00 and $79.30 [9]