中金：AI拉动了多少出口

Core Insights - AI is expected to enhance global trade in the long term by reducing trade costs and increasing productivity, with WTO projecting a growth in global trade volume by 33.7% to 36.7% from 2025 to 2040, driven by lower trade costs, improved AI services, and productivity in tradable sectors [1] Group 1: AI-Related Product Exports - Global AI-related product exports are projected to reach $3.1 trillion in 2024, a 10.1% increase from 2023, accounting for 14.5% of total exports, up 1.2 percentage points [2] - The top three regions for AI-related product exports are Mainland China ($633.6 billion), Hong Kong ($355.4 billion), and Taiwan ($310.6 billion), with Mainland China's share of total exports at 17.7% [2] - The export structure from Mainland China is balanced between intermediate goods (68%) and equipment (31%), compared to other major economies [2] Group 2: AI-Related Product Imports - The U.S. has seen a significant increase in AI-related product imports, with a year-on-year growth of 27% in August 2025, driven by a surge in private sector investment in information processing equipment [3] - AI-related products accounted for 20.7% of total U.S. imports in August 2025, an increase of 5.5 percentage points from the previous year, with a notable rise in the share of AI-related equipment imports [3] Group 3: China's AI-Related Product Export Trends - From December 2024 to November 2025, Mainland China's AI-related product exports are expected to reach $690.3 billion, a 9.7% year-on-year increase, although still below the levels seen in July 2022 [4] - The contribution of AI-related products to China's monthly export growth is projected to be approximately 1.7 percentage points in 2025, up from 1.4 percentage points in 2024, with a contribution rate of 32% [4] - Direct trade between China and the U.S. in AI-related products is relatively low, with only 8% of U.S. imports coming from Mainland China [4] Group 4: AI-Related Services Exports - AI-related services, which include telecommunications, computer, and information services, are also experiencing growth, with exports reaching $70.8 billion by October 2025, a 13.5% increase year-on-year [5] - China is positioned to gain competitive advantages in AI-related services in developing economies, with 81% of low-income economies using open-source AI models from China [5]