美银看好黄金2026上探5000美元，白银或飙至309美元历史高位

Group 1 - Bank of America predicts that gold will remain a key hedging tool in investment portfolios, with an average price of $4,538 per ounce by 2026, while silver prices may peak between $135 and $309 per ounce [3][11] - The forecast is based on expectations of declining gold supply and rising costs, with North American gold production expected to decrease by 2% to 19.2 million ounces this year [3][10] - Average all-in sustaining costs are projected to rise by 3% to approximately $1,600 per ounce, slightly above market expectations, while producers' profitability is expected to increase significantly, with EBITDA projected to grow by 41% to around $65 billion by 2026 [3][10] Group 2 - The current gold-silver ratio of approximately 59 suggests that silver may outperform gold, with historical ratios indicating potential high points for silver prices [4][11] - Investment demand for gold has surged, particularly from retail investors, with inflows into gold-backed ETFs reaching the highest level since 2020 [5][12] - High-net-worth investors currently allocate only 0.5% of their assets to gold, indicating significant room for growth in gold investment [5][12] Group 3 - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold, with gold reserves now exceeding holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, averaging 15% of total reserves [6][13] - A diversified strategy that includes gold is beneficial for both central bank and institutional portfolios [6][13] - The performance of gold as an asset has been strong, making it difficult for portfolio managers to ignore its potential contributions [7][14] Group 4 - U.S. monetary policy will be a crucial factor influencing gold prices in 2026, with models indicating that gold prices tend to rise by an average of 13% when inflation exceeds 2% during easing cycles [7][14] - A modest increase in investment demand of 14% could drive gold prices to $5,000 per ounce, while a 55% increase would be necessary to reach $8,000 per ounce [5][12]