国信证券：26年推理侧需求有望爆发 办公场景有望迎来更多AI产品落地

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that demand for reasoning-side applications is expected to explode in 2026, with AI programming, AI agents, and AI content creation being the main growth areas, driven by productivity enhancement and the emergence of several successful applications this year [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Projections - The North American tech giants are projected to increase their capital expenditures (Capex) by over 50% in 2025, with a continued growth rate of over 30% expected in 2026 [2] - The report highlights that the data center capacity in North America is expected to face a power bottleneck due to significant Capex investments, with an estimated 80GW demand increase by 2029 [2] - The Scaling Law is anticipated to continue, with model vendors expected to open differentiated application markets, leading to a potential inflection point in reasoning-side demand in 2026 [1][3] Group 2: Model Architecture and Evolution - The evolution of model architecture is ongoing, with the need to address core pain points such as computational and memory consumption during training, as well as limited memory capacity during inference [3] - The report notes that the gap between models is narrowing, with Google catching up to OpenAI, and emphasizes the importance of algorithms and computing power in this race [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape of Major Players - OpenAI remains a key player with 800 million C-end users, while Gemini is recognized as the state-of-the-art (SOTA) benchmark for large models due to its native multi-modal approach [4] - Anthropic focuses on a B2B strategy with strong capabilities in programming, achieving a valuation of $350 billion and an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $1 billion for its AI programming product [4] - Grok leverages Tesla's unique data advantages to develop next-generation native multi-modal models, despite facing limitations in reasoning scenarios [4] Group 4: Software Development and Market Dynamics - The demand for AI is expected to open up the software development ceiling, with the global SaaS market projected to reach nearly $1 trillion by 2029, up from $580 billion in 2025 [5] - The report suggests that the competitive landscape will undergo a reshuffle, with players who have data barriers and focus on niche verticals being less likely to be replaced by large models [5][6]