债市早报：交易商协会加大对债券交易记录相关违规行为惩戒力度；资金面整体宽松，债市走弱

Core Viewpoint - The overall financial environment remains loose, with bond markets showing weakness while convertible bonds and major indices in the stock market have collectively risen. Group 1: Domestic Bond Market News - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association has announced stricter penalties for violations related to bond trading record-keeping, emphasizing the need for compliance in maintaining transaction records [2]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 10-year fixed-rate bonds with a total face value of 180 billion yuan on January 9, 2026, through a competitive bidding process [2]. Group 2: International Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. unexpectedly shrank to 47.9 in December, marking the largest contraction since October 2024, with new orders and export orders continuing to decline [4]. - The report indicates that 15 industries contracted, with only two showing growth, highlighting ongoing weaknesses in the manufacturing sector [4]. Group 3: Commodity Market Movements - International crude oil futures prices increased, with WTI crude rising by 1.74% to $58.32 per barrel, while natural gas prices continued to decline [5]. Group 4: Financial Market Operations - On January 5, the central bank conducted a 135 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4.688 trillion yuan due to the maturity of reverse repos [6][7]. - Despite the central bank's significant net withdrawal, the overall funding environment remains loose, with slight increases in various funding rates [7]. Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market weakened due to a large issuance plan for January and limited bond purchases by the central bank, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 2.10 basis points to 1.8615% [9]. - In the secondary market, two industrial bonds saw price deviations exceeding 10%, indicating volatility in credit bonds [11]. Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the stock market's upward trend, with major indices rising by approximately 1.4% to 2.85%, and a total trading volume of 85.075 billion yuan [18]. - A total of 327 out of 390 convertible bonds rose in value, with notable increases in specific bonds such as Dingjie Convertible Bond, which rose over 15% [18].