百利好丨2025年主要资产表现回顾

Economic Outlook - The global economy in 2025 shows strong resilience amid uncertainty, characterized by heightened competition, moderate growth slowdown, and increasing risk pressures [1] - A significant shift in monetary policy is anticipated in 2026, with potential interest rate cuts leading to a favorable environment for commodity markets [1] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is expected to experience a major surge in 2026, with gold, silver, and copper reaching new historical highs, and target prices set at $5000/oz, $100/oz, and $7.50/lb respectively [1] - Gold prices surged from $2624 to a peak of $4378 in 2025, marking a cumulative increase of $1754 (67%) driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [3][5] - Copper prices also reached a historical high of $5.88, with a 47% increase from $3.98, influenced by supply constraints and rising demand [16][17] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices continued a downward trend in 2025, influenced by increased supply and declining demand growth, with prices fluctuating between $80.74 and $55.11 [7][11] - OPEC+ plans to gradually lift production cuts starting April 2025, restoring 2.326 million barrels per day, which raises concerns about oversupply [8] Currency Trends - The US dollar index experienced a significant decline of over 12% in 2025, dropping from a high of 110 to a low of 96.20, driven by economic risks and geopolitical factors [12][14] Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed a volatile upward trend in 2025, with the S&P 500 index rising by 26.84%, supported by AI infrastructure developments and favorable economic conditions [15]