卓创资讯：2026年首次成品油零售价调整或遇搁浅

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with domestic retail fuel prices likely to remain unchanged due to insufficient adjustment margins [3][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - During the current period (from December 22, 2025, 24:00 to January 6, 2026, 24:00), the international crude oil market shows limited volatility and a slight decline in the crude oil change rate [3][5]. - The crude oil change rate was recorded at 1.07% as of January 5, indicating a potential increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 45 yuan per ton, but the adjustment may not occur due to the change rate being below 50 yuan per ton [3][5]. - The market is influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in South America, and an oversupply situation, leading to cautious sentiment among downstream traders [3][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The upcoming adjustment period is expected to start with a positive crude oil change rate, potentially leading to an increase of around 20 yuan per ton, with the adjustment window set for January 20, 2026 [4][6]. - The focus remains on developments in Europe and the manageable situation in South America, while the U.S. is in a seasonal demand lull, contributing to significant pressure on oil inventories [4][6].